Grand National - riders with the right track record....

Last Updated: 28.03.2017

Tuesday, 28th March 2017

Grand National – riders with the right track record….

I was recently asked to highlight a few potential routes to winning Grand National bets by a guy who was surfing the Internet and came across something I’d written a few years-ago.

It’s a race I have a bit of a track record in. I know some of you were with me back in 2013 when I tipped-up Auroras Encore the night before the race at 80s.

And some of you would have been with me the year afterwards when we got Pineau De Re over the line in first place – having been advised at 25s.

Both these wins made up for the agony of Sunnyhillboy being beaten a nose – run down on the line by Neptune Collonges – in the 2012 edition of the race having been advised at 25s the night before racing.

I haven’t managed to find the winner in more recent times. But I expect I’ll be back in the winning enclosure before too long. Hopefully a week on Saturday when this season’s renewal is run at Aintree….

Given the recent request from my online seeker, I thought it might be an idea to share with you a few approaches with the potential to deliver bets at value prices.

  • A track for specialists….

The Grand National course and its idiosyncratic fences present horses with a unique challenge. There is no other course – and no other jumping challenge – quite like it in British racing. Or anywhere else for that matter.

Some horses love the place. They thrive on the peculiar challenge. Time and again they return to the Grand national track and out in quality performances.

A few years ago, there was a horse trained by Peter Bowen called Always Waining. He absolutely loved the Grand National fences.

Over a 5-year period stretching from 2009 to 2013 he appeared in races run over the Grand National fences a total of 8 times.

He appeared in the Topham Chase four times – winning on 3 occasions. He appeared in two editions of the Grand Sefton – falling once and finishing 6th the next time. He appeared in a Becher Chase – finishing 4th. And he got around on the one occasion he stepped up in trip and appeared in a Grand National.

With form figures over the fences reading 4F161410, Always Waining was clearly something of a course specialist. He took to the place. He took to the fences. Aintree and the Grand National course brought out the best in him. That’s how it works for some horses.

  • The top man over the National fences….

And that’s how it is for some of the jockeys too. Let’s not forget that it isn’t just the horse that goes around the course and over the fences. The jockey does too.

And some of the jockeys – like some of the horses – have demonstrated a liking for or a knack of effectively handling the specific challenge of the Grand National fences.

Take Barry Geraghty, for example. His last 23 rides in races run over the Grand National fences – the Topham, the Becher, the Grand Sefton, the Foxhunter and the Grand National itself – have produced 4 winners and 5 placed finishers.

That’s a place strike-rate of almost 40% over the most severe fences in racing – a figure that serves to underline Geraghty’s mastery of the fences and his ability to get horses to perform over them.

Had you backed all his last 23 rides over the fences £10 each-way you’d now be sitting on a profit of £639.00.

Clearly Barry Geraghty is a rider to have onside over the Grand National fences. Whatever he rides this year – assuming he recovers from a recent injury sufficiently well to take part – is worthy of very serious consideration.

  • As good as the professionals….

Another rider to note is the amateur, Mr Sam Whaley-Cohen. He may not be a paid-up member of the professional ranks but he is certainly a sound-enough horseman to compete on level terms.

Indeed, over the Grand National fences you might make the case that he is a good deal better than some of his professional counterparts.

His last 17 rides over the idiosyncratic obstacles produced 5 winners and 4 placed finishes. That’s a place strike rate of more than 50%. And two more rides produced 5th and 6th place finishes. He’s only failed to finish 4 times.

And if you’d backed all Whaley-Cohen’s last 17 qualifying runners £10 each-way, you’d now be sitting on a profit of £837.00. He’s clearly an advantage to both horse and punter over the Grand National fences….

  • The big name makes the shortlist….

You’d expect top-man in the weighing room, Ruby Walsh, to make out shortlist. And you’d be correct. His last 25 rides over the fences produced 4 winners and 6 places – with another 3 of his rides making the top 6.

The problem with Ruby Walsh is that he’s Ruby Walsh – the best rider in the sport – and punters are very much onto his rides.

The bookies never take too many chances. And punters are always keen to back his rides. Consequently, Walsh’s rides frequently get backed into short-prices. They are harder to make a decent profit from.

Even so, had you backed all his last 25 rides over the Grand National fences £10 each-way, you’d still be sitting on a profit of £131.00.

  • The dark horse in the weighing room….

If there’s a dark-horse rider to draw your attention to then that man is Liam Treadwell. His last 13 rides over the Grand National fences produced 2 winners and 3 placers.

It’s a cracking record and the thing about Treadwell is that he is pretty much off the market radar. He’s not a glamour-name. He’s not got a high-profile. He isn’t a big character. Consequently, his rides over these big fences can get overlooked.

Mon Mome won the 2009 Grand National under Treadwell – sent off at 100/1. He’s had placers over the fences at 40/1 and 33/1. Had you backed all his last 13 qualifying rides £10 each-way you’d now be sitting on profits amounting to £1962.00.

For sure, some big prices contribute to that figure. It’s a little skewed. Some would say Treadwell has had some lucky winners and placers. Fair enough, but Treadwell has been ‘lucky’ sufficient times to suggest there’s a bit of talent at work too.

Treadwell doesn’t always get over all the fences on his mount. But, when he does, he always goes close. Nothing he’s finished on over the Grand National fences has finished worse than 6th. At a big price his ride is always worth considering.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for today.

I’ve got another Grand National angle for you tomorrow. One that I can guarantee very few people are aware of….

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd