Tuesday, 9th July 2019
Newmarket’s 3-day July Festival gets underway on Thursday....
ATC will be there – doing what we always do and targeting the prices in the best of the handicaps run at the fixture....
For a rundown on the races we’ll be targeting over the next few days go here....
Yesterday we provided a KISS (Keep-It-Simple-Stupid) angle you might want to make use of at the meeting – a simple and straightforward stats-driven angle that is based on not too much thinking, but which has proven to be plenty profitable in recent times....
You can review that here if you missed it....
Newmarket’s July meeting is not the absolute highlight of the summer. We prefer Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and the Ebor meeting at York....
But there are a few races that will throw up some value bets – with the feature race for us being the Bunbury Cup run on Saturday over the 7f trip....
The bet365 Trophy and handicaps for 3yo horses over 6f and 10f provide the main support handicap events....
We’ll be taking a contrarian view and targeting horses at value prices in all those races....
But the races won’t just be about the horses involved. The human actors in the game play a big part too....
It is the horses that do the running. But they don’t do it alone. And I think sometimes that gets overlooked....
The rider is the last (and only) human being who can have any influence on a horse’s performance once the stalls open on a race. He/she is an important component in the overall outcome....
And it can be a proper advantage in competitive handicaps to have the right rider aboard. On such small measures do big outcomes potentially hang....
We might debate all day long what qualifies a rider as the ‘right one’. Riders bring a range of skills, qualities and credentials to the job – some of which or all of which might be required on any specific riding assignment....
Some elements of horsemanship, I don’t even pretend to recognise, acknowledge or understand. After all, I’m just a simple-minded punter....
But I do make it my business to know and recognize when a rider represents a clear-cut advantage at a specific track....
Ryan Moore will never lack for followers in the markets....
And he’s sure to be on the radar of plenty of punters at next week’s meeting....
Some will be backing his mounts in the decent handicap events simply because Ryan Moore is the top man in the weighing room – and there’s nothing wrong with that....
But others will be taking a strong interest in the Lester-Piggott-like Moore’s rides because they recognise that the rider is a proven advantage to a horse in a handicap on the July course....
The numbers don’t lie....
They reveal that Moore has a better record in decent handicaps on the July course than most of his weighing-room colleagues....
Since 2012 in handicaps at the track from which winning connections took home £10k+, Moore’s 60 rides have produced 13 winners and an additional 13 placers....
That’s a win strike-rate of 21.6% and a place strike-rate not too far shy of 45%....
But, it’s not easy to make hay from Mr. Moore’s record....
Eleven of his 13 winners were sent off either favourite or second-favourite. Had you backed all 60 horses to win, you’d only have made a profit of 11.7 points....
It’s profit, yes. But at 0.19 points per bet, you are really having to work for it....
Moore clearly rides the course to good effect. He clearly has a handle on the configuration and the quirks of the track....
He frequently rides horses to better effect there than most of his competitors. And it is reasonable to expect him to do so again next week....
But everybody knows it and the prices in the market reflect it. The value isn’t there....
As a dyed-in-the-wool value seeker, I will be much more interested next week in the rides taken by Jim Crowley in the big handicaps....
Crowley rides the good handicaps on the July track just as well as Moore, but the market doesn’t seem to be aware of it. If it is, it doesn’t want to take heed of it....
The historic record tells us the market is much more likely to let Crowley’s rides go off at a price – and that produces value-betting opportunities worth looking out for....
Crowley’s last 42 handicap rides on the July course worth £10k+ to winning connections have produced 10 winners at 23.8% and six additional places producing an overall place strike rate of 38%....
Those are reasonable figures in anybody’s book....
A doctor in statistical science would say that the sample is ridiculously small. Of course, he would. But it is always going to be. And who gives a damn about statistical scientists and nit-pickers anyway?
I’m not trying to get a thesis published. I’m not making scientific discoveries here. I’m not trying out for a place at Cambridge....
I’m just trying to get to a basic quick-and-dirty point – that Crowley rides the July course well judging from the rides he’s had there. No more. No less....
The past is not the future. I know that. What happened yesterday cannot always be relied on to repeat itself tomorrow....
But talent is talent. And a knack for the job can’t be denied. Crowley has the knack on the July course. And that’s knowledge worth having in the locker....
If you’d backed his last 42 qualifying handicap rides to the tune of 1-point each-way, you’d now be sitting on a profit amounting to 48.9 points. And that’s to SP. Early prices would likely have produced even better returns....
That’s all been and gone, of course. Those profits are banked. Probably spent. You don’t get the opportunity to back last year’s horses at last year’s prices this year....
But the numbers tell us Crowley knows what he’s doing on the July track....
And on the right handicapper at the right price this time around, he is more capable than many of getting the same job done again....
It’s something worth knowing ahead of next week....
That’s all from me for today.
I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on the action on Day 1 at Newmarket....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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