A dark horse at Wincanton....

Last Updated: 08.11.2019

Friday, 8th November 2019

A dark horse at Wincanton….

We’ve lost Doncaster to the weather. The track is waterlogged....

So, there’s no November Handicap to shoot at and we are down to one betting race, the Badger Beers Silver Trophy at Wincanton (3.35) – a 3m1f handicap chase for horses rated up to 155....

A field of 14 is set to go to post. The ground is described as good – but there are some showers forecast (some heavy) ahead of the off....

  • Third time on the bounce?

Present Man won the last two renewals of this race off 142 and 144. He goes for the hat-trick tomorrow off 148....

The layers have him in as one of the most likely winners – at prices no better than 5s....

He’ll be first-time-up. But that’s not a big concern. He won it on seasonal debut last term....

The difference this time is that the horse had a wind-op in January before pulling up in the bet365 Gold Cup in April. It’s a detail. But it raises a slight question mark....

That said if the horse turns out in the shape he’s been in for the last two editions of the race then he has obvious claims....

He’s not for me at the price. I am happy to dig about lower down the order....

  • My bet for the Badger....

Neil Mulholland’s SOUPY SOUPS is up at 16s and I’m swinging at that....

Mulholland has a decent record in this race. He won  in 2014 with The Young Master (who goes again tomorrow) and he was 3rd last year with Fingerontheswitch. Both horses were well down the weights. Just as this one is tomorrow.

The 8yo has taken time to get going over fences but the last couple of performances hint at better things to come....

The win at Perth in September wasn’t backed-up at  Fontwell in the first week of October – he found one too good on the day. But he did run a race. And he did it at a 2m5f trip that was always going to be on  the sharp side....

You would hope that last run has sharpened his edge for this and I just see him as a dark horse. He likes going right, I think the ground will be okay for him and Adrian Heskin is an interesting booking....

He’s not been getting many rides of late, but he has been going well on those he’s been getting.

This is an opportunity to be seen to good effect in a high-profile race....

Nick’s contrarian picks….

To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon….

In the Badger Beers Silver Trophy (3.35 @ Wincanton).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – SOUPY SOUPS (16s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • A final word….

That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back next week with more handicap-focused insight and analysis....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd