A value bet on the Friday card at Newbury....

Last Updated: 28.11.2019

Thursday, 28th November 2019

A value bet on the Friday card at Newbury….

Unless there’s a proper midweek festival in progress, I usually leave the betting advice to the weekend....

But the Newbury card delivers the Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase at 1.50....

It’s a C2 handicap over the 2m4f trip and I can’t resist having a crack at it because there’s one I like up at a price....

  • Backing an act of redemption....

David Pipe’s EAMON AN CNOIC didn’t get very far last time at Cheltenham in the BetVictor Gold Cup....

He was out of the race before it really got started – stumbling and unshipping his rider at the second fence. These things happen and horses must be forgiven such instances....

If there are upsides to crashing out of a race in such fashion then they are twofold....

One, the horse didn’t take a heavy fall and he was unlikely to be injured....

Two, he didn’t have a tough race and left the racecourse without having emptied his tank and without the need for recovery time....

In other words, there’s no reason to anticipate that he will turn up at Newbury tomorrow in anything other than prime shape – ready to do the business....

  • Reading between the lines....

The 8yo had been specifically aimed at the Cheltenham race first-time-up. His owners travelled over from America to be at the track. It would have been disappointing for them....

But their presence was informative enough for us punters. We can surmise that David Pipe would have had the horse as close to pitch-perfect as possible. He would have wanted to give the owners something to shout about....

And given that the horse has won four times off breaks from the track of 50+ days, we can expect Pipe to have got the preparation right again....

My take is that the horse will be primed and ready to earn some redemption at Newbury tomorrow – over a trip and on ground that will both suit....

There are plenty of decent horses in the field – and, as is always the case in these big handicaps, you can make a case for multiple of them....

For me, the bottom-line is price. I reckon Eamon An Cnoic is on a fair mark and represents a bit of value at the 14s with Paddy Power and Unibet and the general 12s – and I’ll be backing him on that basis....

Nick’s contrarian picks….

To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon….

In the Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase (1.50 @ Newbury)….

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – EAMON AN CNOIC (14s Paddy Power & Unibet & 12s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • A final word….

That’s all from me for today....

I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on the weekend handicaps....

We’ll be doing the usual and seeking to identify the right kind of horses (competitive) at the wrong (too big) kind of prices....

And I’ll also be highlighting interesting bits and pieces to look out for and monitor as the action unfolds....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen