Wednesday, 30th September 2020
We have a weekend of high-quality action to look forward to….
On Saturday, we’ve got the Challenge Cup at Ascot – up the straight 7f strip….
On Sunday, the focus switches to Longchamp. The Arc De Triomphe – Europe’s most prestigious and valuable race – is the feature....
It’s a G1 rather than a handicap. But rules exist to be bent and this is one of my favourite races. I like to take an interest and I imagine many of you do too….
Top-level races like the Arc tend to produce winners that conform to a specific template....
And the historic record of the race offers us give us aa chopping block on which to split the field into likely contenders and horses destined to make up the numbers….
Of course, the stats don’t represent an infallible A + B + C + D = formula. We’re dealing with horse races – and horse races are not chemistry experiments or mathematical problems that can be solved with a calculator....
Half-ton animals made of flesh, bone and blood are not entirely predictable. And, we know from bitter experience, that races between them are never so....
Surprise outcomes and outcomes we didn’t consider as likely as others are a consistent feature of this game. And we sit down at the table to play our hand of cards knowing that to be the case....
Solemia is a horse that provides an ideal case in point. She was the last big surprise winner of this race in 2012. Sent off unfancied at 33/1, she nevertheless came home in front....
It was soft that day at Longchamp. That factor played a big part in the outcome. And it serves as a reminder that the field-splitting stats below are best viewed alongside and in conjunction with underfoot conditions and how they turn out a little later this week….
Right now, the ground at Longchamp is described as very soft – with showers expected….
You can generally dismiss horses that haven’t already won a G1 race….
Only one of the last 20 winners triumphed without ticking that box. Seventeen of the last 20 winners had produced G1 win earlier that same season. Found, Solemia and Treve in 2014 are the three that didn’t. Found had finished 2nd in four though. And Solemia had only had one such opportunity ahead of the Arc – finishing 3rd....
A decent level of experience is essential – but too much is a disadvantage….
Horses that have run at least six times but no more than twelve times represent the percentage play. Sixteen of the last 20 winners conformed to that yardstick....
Attention is most profitably focused on horses that have scored a career-best of 120+ on the Racing Post rating scale….
Nineteen of the last 20 Arc winners had met that standard. Sixteen had registered a rating of that level at 11f to 12f....
Racing in the Arc off a long lay-off is a disadvantage….
Eighteen of the last 20 winners had been seen on the track at some point during the last 6-weeks. That said, none of the last 20 winners had run during the three- week period directly ahead of the race....
Age is another decent basis on which to split the Arc field….
Just four of the last 56 Arc winners were older than 4. The 3yos have won 34 of the last 56 renewals whilst the 4yos have won 18….
As is the case with the wider record, the edge lies with the 3yo horses in recent times. As a group, they have won twelve of the last 20 renewals and produced an additional eighteen top-3 finishes from 137 runners in total….
Compare that to the record of 4yo runners. They’ve produced six wins and thirteen top-3 finishes from 117 runners over the same period….
And, whatever you do, don’t dismiss the fairer sex. That would be a mistake. Fillies and mares as a group have won eight and produced an additional eleven top-3 finishers from 68 runners since 2000….
Of course, to press the point, the stats can only tell us what has happened before. The frequency with which something has happened can only suggest how likely it is to happen again. And all stats must be weighed against the context of individual horses and their specific circumstances….
But – year on year – the historic statistical record proves to be a strong guide to the biggest races on the programme. Sunday’s race certainly falls into that category and this year’s winner is highly likely to tick most if not all of the statistical boxes highlighted above....
Personally, I’ll be looking to identify and bet strong qualifiers at big prices. But that’s just me....
The race was run at Chantilly for a couple of years prior to the race returning to a redeveloped Longchamp in 2018....
The draw wasn’t seen as a big issue at Chantilly. But it has a big bearing on the outcome at Longchamp....
Fourteen of the last 18 winners at Longchamp started the race in stall 8 or lower. It’s not impossible to win from a higher stall – but the advantage is likely to be with the horses drawn lowest – especially in larger fields….
The table below might be of some interest to you. It shows the finishing position of horses from individual stalls in the last 18 renewals of the Arc run at Longchamp – with top-3 finishes in bold....
Stalls 1 to 8 have produced 14 of the last 18 Longchamp Arc winners….
Stall 6 is something of a magic stall – having produced five winners from 18 runners. Next best is stall 3 with three winners and two additional placers from the last 18 horses to try from there….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
A couple of interesting snippets from the mailbag today – responses from readers to Monday’s column which was focused on Majestic Dawn’s Cambridgeshire win at the weekend….
JR read more into the booking of Paul Hanagan than I did – and makes a good point….
‘I think the booking of Hanigan went under the radar, I agree his record for Cole wasn’t exactly leaping of the screen. However, he is one of the top jockeys leading from the front, that’s why he got the job for Hamden Al Maktoum. He very rarely gets the fractions wrong….’
JS provides a little contextual perspective and a detail worth logging….
‘This was like a return to the old days at Cole’s. His son is taking a much bigger role now and buying the new stock. It will be interesting to see how it develops….’
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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