Thursday, 15th October 2020
One day in the future, nobody will have to learn anything….
If you want to play Chopin on speak fluent Swahili, you won’t need to bother doing any of the donkey work….
You’ll just need to show-up at some tech-clinic, tell them what neural software package you want, pay your money and get the download direct to your brain….
Expertise will be instant – if you can afford it. No pain. No work. No effort. No blood. No sweat. No tears. Just plug-in, load and run….
At least that’s what I reckon. I don’t know when. It might be 50-years away or it might happen next week….
Until we reach that point, there are no short cuts. Expertise requires a big investment of time and effort….
Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point is worth a look if you like reading books….
He reckons expertise (or developing a high-level of skill at a given task takes 10,000 hours-worth of work, practice and effort….
So, if you want to be a big deal on the guitar, it’s not going to happen 5 minutes after you first pick the instrument up….
You’re going to have to put in hours of work. You’ll need to dedicate yourself and make sacrifices to find the required time. You’ll need to earn mastery of the task….
And even if you work on developing expertise for 20 hours a week, it’s going to take 10-years to bank the 10,000 hours. Ten years!
And finding 20 hours a week is a massive ask for 80% of people who work, raise families and all the rest of it….
In other words, expertise and skill, are not easily acquired….
No wonder most folk don’t bother developing any skill that isn’t directly related to the way they make a living. And most only develop work skills because they don’t get paid otherwise….
My point today is this: backing horses in handicap races is a skill. One you can develop….
It’s not like playing the guitar or speaking a foreign language or doing magic tricks….
With those things there are absolute outcomes. You learn something, you practice it relentlessly and eventually you perfect it….
You’re never going to master race-betting completely. You’re never going to get every bet you place right. Betting is a game of speculation. It is a game in flux. It isn’t a mathematics test. You can’t always find the right answer….
But whatever your standard as a punter, you’ll improve by putting time into the game and learning as much as possible….
Don’t forget; you’re not betting against the bookmaker like many punters believe. The bookie is just a middleman who makes the market and takes a percentage out of the book….
The people you are betting against are the other punters in the market. They are your true opposition. And the trick to beating them is to know more than they do. Over time, your superior knowledge will win out. What you know is your edge in the markets….
And it’s no good just knowing what other punters know – the stuff everybody is reading in the Racing Post or on the Sporting Life website. What’s the use in that?
You need to know more than they do. You need to put the hours in to dig-out the stuff that remains hidden from them because they don’t have the time, the inclination or the wit to swing the pick and get to work with the shovel….
Most punters don’t bother. After all, who wants hard work?
Some punters think they know everything already….
Some believe they don’t need to know anything more than they do because their precision-honed gut instincts are like a superpower that makes-up for an absence of genuine knowledge….
Some punters are pin-stickers – punters who are content to play the handicap races as though they were a lottery. They throw a dart and hope one sticks in the right part of the board now and again….
Of course, some punters do know one end of the horse from the other. They know a bit. But the emphasis is on a bit….
Others think they know things they don’t. They have a whole series of untested assumptions and opinions that they mistake for fact. It’s a package that leads them into trouble….
Other punters are great listeners – listening to this pundit or that tipster or this reporter or that guy in the betting shop with a hole in the front of his show and betting accordingly. Ask them why they are betting a specific horse, and they won’t have a reason that holds water….
These punters are your opposition. Or a big part of it.
And they can be beaten. Beaten with knowledge. Beaten because you know more than they do. Yesterday, today and tomorrow….
And I’ve got some good news for you. You don’t need to worry about that 10,000 hours I was talking about earlier….
Think of me, Nick Pullen, as your hired hand….
I’m your racing contact who has already put in the crucial 10,000 hours – and more. Much more….
I’m the racing analyst who continues to put in the time. I’m the guy who is dedicated to doing the digging and sharing the fruits of my labour with you….
ATC is my service. It’s the hardest working racing advisory service in Britain (bar none) and it exists to bring you the knowledge that will give you an edge over the opposition in the big handicap markets….
We aim to get the job done one day at a time…. one drop at a time…. one insight and one observation at a time….
Across the long-term, ATC will build your handicap knowledge base to a point far beyond that of the average opposition you bet against….
And that knowledge base will be your edge in the market – a razor-sharp edge that will improve your effectiveness as a handicap punter….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the weekend action. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Until next time. Stay tuned.