Thursday, 14th January 2021
I think of the top-level big-field handicaps as specialist races for specialist horses….
Not every horse is suited to these rough and tumble races….
Whilst some thrive in an environment where it’s all push and shove and the teeth are barred, and the elbows are flying – other horses wilt….
Where trainers are concerned, I’m not sure that winning top-level big field handicaps boils down entirely to being a specialist….
There’s going to be an element of that at work. Perhaps a large element. But to win such races you must have the right kind of horse to begin with….
Some trainers are blessed with more of those horses than others – for whatever reason. And it is those trainers who tend to win the largest volume of the top-level big-field handicaps….
The table below displays the record of the top yards in top-level (C1 & C2) big-field (12+ runners) NH handicaps (hurdles & fences) in Britain since the beginning of 2016….
Trainers require 10 winners for inclusion in the table. The table is ordered by win volume. The place count includes 5th place finishes in fields of 20+ (that’s just how I work)….
You might recall that just before Christmas I nominated Gordon Elliott as my idea of the current top man in this specific niche….
He doesn’t score in the same volume as a Paul Nicholls or a Nicky Henderson but his win rate of 11% is the only one in double figures….
And his 34.9% total place strike rate beats everybody else on the list and serves to illustrate exactly how competitive his horses are when targeted at top British big-field handicaps….
You might also recall that Elliott’s deeper figures reveal a poor performance in qualifying runners going off at prices….
The last 73 going off at 14s or bigger produced just a single winner – producing a major loss for level stake punters….
The 73 runners at 12s or shorter produced 15 winners @ 20.5% and a handsome level stakes betting profit of 55 points to SP….
That’s an ROI of 75.3% – and you’d have done better taking early prices or Betfair SP….
The message is clear – the market has provided an effective steer on Elliott’s runners in top-level big-field handicaps without tearing the backside out of betting opportunities….
The point should also be made that Elliott reserves his top-level big-field exploits in Britain for the spring Festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree….
The performance figures in qualifying races at the Cheltenham Festival are first-class….
Twelves winners and 25 additional placers from 91 runners translate into win and total place strike rates of 13.2% and 40.7%....
When you consider that the big-field handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival are among the most competitive races you’ll see on the British programme all year, that 40.7% total place strike rate is clearly a stellar figure….
Six winners and 7 placers from 36 runners at Aintree is represents an 11.1% win to run ratio and a 30.6% total place strike rate….
Measured against the Cheltenham Festival performance the Aintree figures look a trifle skinny. But the reality is that most trainers would be delighted with a 30.6% place rate in the big handicaps at any big meeting….
When it comes to other qualifying races in Britain Elliott’s figures of zero wins from 19 suggest he’s just rolling the dice rather that turning out with the utmost serious intention….
The Elliot record in qualifying races over hurdles is a little better than the record over fences….
There have been more runners over hurdles – 82 compared to 64….
But the hurdle win and place strike rates of 12.2% and 39% so easily beat the chase figures of 9.4% and 29.7% that the difference in runner volumes is a non-issue….
Whatever the discipline – hurdles or chases – the smart move is to stick with the least exposed runners. Making 10 runs your cut-off points makes sense – as the table below illustrates….
A win rate of 15.4% and a place rate of 43.6% compared to 5.9% and 25% tells you that Elliott does best in the top-level big-field British handicaps with newcomers and relative newcomers rather than the old stagers….
All the figures above will help you assess and take a view on any Gordon Elliott-trained runners in the top-level big-field handicap niche that this column focuses on primarily….
Of course, that takes a little effort and a little time and whilst that’s what some punters live for – the puzzling and the delving through the detail in search of good angles and bets – other punters want the betting equivalent of fast food….
They don’t want to be bothered with all the messing about. They want a turnkey angle. They want a straightforward system – something that’s quick and easy and fills a gap when most needed….
If you’re looking for such an option with Gordon Elliott’s qualifying runners in Britain then the smart move is to wait for those occasions when Gordon Elliott teams up with Davy Russell and the market fancies the horse….
Elliott and Russell in combination on qualifying horses sent off at 12s or shorter since the start of 2016 produced 6 winners and 5 placers from just 20 runners….
That’s a win rate of 30% and a total place strike rate of 55%....
Backing all those horses to level stakes at SP produced a profit of 37.36 points.
That’s not bad going for bets revolving around horses, a trainer and a jockey that are hardly off the market radar. And you would probably have done better still at Early Prices or betting to Betfair SP….
You won’t get rich off the angle. It won’t produce a mass of bets. You won’t be able to retire on the back of the proceeds….
But it’s one of those nuggets of information that its worth being aware of. You might be able to put it to profitable use in the weeks ahead. There will certainly be opportunities to scrutinise….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the big-field handicap action this weekend. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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