Tuesday, 11th May 2021
York’s 3-day Dante meeting gets underway tomorrow afternoon….
The first two races on the card are right up our street – quality handicaps boasting big fields….
At 1.40 there’s the C2 Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap for horses aged 4yo+ over the left-handed 12f trip – with 16 declared to go to post….
At 2.10 we have the C2 Churchill Tyres Handicap for horses aged 4yo+ over the straight 6f trip – with 19 intended runners….
We’ll get to my selections for those races in a moment. First, a word on a promising performance to note from last week’s Chester meeting….
Back in March 2018, David Barron’s Kynren burst onto the top-level handicap scene with a 3rd-place finish in the Spring Mile at Doncaster – rated 93….
For the remainder of that season he remained a big force in big-field handicaps at trips ranging from a mile to 10f….
He didn’t manage to land a win but he did run eye-catching races in the John Smith’s Cup, the Clipper Logistics, the Cambridgeshire, and the Balmoral….
And the run continued the following season. He didn’t win straight off – but he placed in the Lincoln, the Victoria Cup, the Royal Hunt Cup, and the Clipper Logistics before finally landing the pot he’d been promising for some time in the Challenge Cup at Ascot….
He followed that up with another big showing in the Balmoral. By the close of the 2019 season he was rated 107….
The 2020 season wasn’t quite so hot. A lot of that was down to his mark – too high. Perhaps a breathing issue also contributed to the downturn – he had a wind-op last July. Whatever, one or two reasonable performances aside, the season was a dud with six runs producing no wins….
He ran down the field on his first run this term at Doncaster and ahead of his assignment at Chester last week – where he ran off a mark of 98 from a wide stall – his trainer said this: ‘With his draw, Kynren couldn't win if he set off now.’
One thing is guaranteed in racing: horses will always surprise and confound you. Kynren ran 3rd – beaten just 1.5 lengths – fairly belting home up the straight like a horse in good order….
He’s 7 now. He might never again be quite the horse he once was. But he’s certainly not finished either. Back down to a mark in the 90s he is surely dangerous once again this term….
The up-and-coming 4yo horses dominate the market for this one at single-figure prices – no surprise there….
My metier is to go against the grain and swing the bat at bigger prices – which sometimes requires reading between the lines and/or taking one or two things on trust. As well as being brave….
That’s what I’m doing in this one. I’m girding my loins and backing 6yo RAYMOND TUSK at the 18s….
I’m always interested in horses that have plummeted fast down the ratings scale rather than inched down it gradually – because there’s more potential for discovering overreaction….
Raymond Tusk was rated 111 as recently as last October – but heads into tomorrow’s assignment rated just 99. He’s fallen 12 pounds for four losses on turf. It’s quite a dramatic drop from grace….
In between times he’s joined Alan King from Richard Hannon and he’s produced a couple of satisfactory performances for his new yard….
He’ll need to improve again on them. That’s for sure. But on 99 he’s potentially weighted to run big at a track where he recorded a career-best handicap performance in the 2019 Ebor and where the ground tomorrow is going to suit….
Alan King’s yard is in good heart right now and one feature of this bet that I like is King’s record with handicappers at this meeting. He doesn’t send many – just nine since 2013 – but all but one produced a competitive performance….
It’s a long way from Barbury Castle in Wiltshire to York. Raymond Tusk is the yard’s only runner at the track tomorrow. I take the view his team anticipate this one time classy-performer can make the trip pay….
Each way players take note: Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6 home. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
MANIGORDO got put up 8lbs to 89 for an easy last-time-out win at Thirsk in a C4 handicap (first time at that lower level) on just his second go for Tim Easterby….
You could take the view that he’s up against it tomorrow – stepping back up to this level and with that hike in the ratings to overcome….
But there’s another way to look at it. It was less than a year ago that he was running in handicaps for previous trainer Richard Hannon off marks of 98 and 96….
He didn’t really do a lot off those marks – granted. But he was thought that good by the official handicapper. And it may be that a rejig at Easterby’s yard and the drop to the 6f trip (it was his first go at the bare 6f trip last time) have turned a key that will enable him to get to that level again….
If so, he is still potentially nicely handicapped for his second go at the trip tomorrow….
That last time out effort was a clear career best. It will have given the 4yo confidence and if he’s fitter for what was his second run this term then he could be primed to play a big hand tomorrow under David Allan – a jockey who rides York well. The bits of 14s and 12s is fair….
Each way players take note: Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 7 home. William Hill are paying out 1/5 the odds on the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s contrarian picks….To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon…. In the Jorvik Handicap (1.40 @ York).
In the Churchill Tyres Handicap (2.10 @ Track).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my selections for Day 2 at York. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Until next time. Stay tuned.
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