Where my contrarian money is going on Day 4 at Glorious Goodwood....

Last Updated: 29.07.2021

Thursday, 29th July 2021

Where my contrarian money is going on Day 4 at Glorious Goodwood….

Today is Day 3 at the Glorious Goodwood meeting. If you missed my bet for today’s opening handicap, you can catch-up here….

My focus is already on Day 4 (tomorrow). I’m always 24 hours ahead of the game – in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about ‘live’ contenders the market is overlooking, underestimating or just plain wrong about….

And after a couple of days where the action has been thin on the ground for top-level handicap fans – things start to hot up tomorrow with the long-distance handicap over the extended 2m4f trip at 1.50 and the Golden Mile at 3.00 – both races attracting big turnouts….

The track’s dried out a bit more over the last 24-hours. It was heavy on Day 1. It was soft on Day 2. Today the going is good to soft all over the track. Isolated showers are forecast for today and for the rest of the week….

  • In the Golden Mile....

Only one horse has managed to win the Golden Mile (3.00) from a double-figure stall in the last 10 years. Seven of those winners were drawn in stall 5 or lower….

The market is clearly paying attention to that record. Seven of the top 8 horses in the market this morning are drawn in a single-figure stall….

The exception is race favourite Magical Morning – drawn in stall 11. Part of that will be down to the Gosden/Dettori factor – the bookies always like that pair on side at these big meetings….

Part of it will be down to the 4yo’s progressive profile and his win at Sandown last time – just about the best bit of form any horse is bringing into tomorrow’s race. The second horse that day – Maydanny – reopposes tomorrow and is also prominent in the betting (drawn in stall 5)….

I wouldn’t want to be on one that’s drawn out too wide. That’s for sure. But looking at the horses drawn low tomorrow it’s clear that plenty of them like to be up-front and pressing. They could go just that bit too hard early on and they could cut one another’s throats. They could very well set the race up for a closer….

That’s the angle I’m approaching the race from and Hugo Palmer’s ACQUITTED strikes me as a horse that could capitalise if or when that scenario plays out….

He’s produced some decent performances this term – not least last time at Sandown in that race won by Magical Morning. He was only 1.5 lengths down in 3rd at the line and he did best of those that raced off the pace early doors….

Connections have been toying with idea of 10f for this 4yo. You can see why. He was doing his best work at the death last time under James Doyle – who rides again tomorrow. But a faster-run mile – they didn’t go too hard early on at Sandown – might be just what the doctor ordered….

Stall 13 is not the best draw. But he’s not up in the high-teens or the 20s and he won’t want to go forward from the off. Knowing the horse has stamina for beyond a mile, Doyle can travel that bit wider, stay out of the inside scrimmaging and come late in the straight – making him dangerous if they do go too fast early on….

At the general 16s I like him as a contrarian play in a race where the market is pretty much on the money….

Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet & Unibet are paying 1/5 the first 6 places. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally. Note: it’s still early days and additional deals will emerge as the day goes on….

  • In the opener....

In the Unibet 3 Boosts A Day Goodwood Handicap over the extended 2m4f trip (1.50), I’m siding with Tom Dascombe’s RAJINSKY at 14s….

I think he’s underrated on a mark of 92….

Up at Newcastle in the Northumberland Plate he was as competitive as anything in the race and suffered through being badly hampered at a key point in proceedings – just as the winner swept by with his finishing effort….

Would he have won without the interference? Hard to say. His trainer thought he would have been plenty closer and I take the same view….

The time before that at Haydock he produced a creditable effort giving weight to a progressive filly who would most likely have won again next time out at Carlisle had the race been run to suit….

On the July course at Newmarket last time Tom Dascombe’s horse was 6th of 15 and beaten 5.25 lengths over a 14f trip that is likely on the inadequate side for a horse at his best over 2m+….

Tomorrow’s longer trip will be new territory. But I liked the way the 5yo was finishing at Newcastle. And I wouldn’t pay too much attention to his performance in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket last season – where he finished tailed off. I think he’d probably had enough for the season at the point….

He handles a right-hander; he handles a big-field; and he’s still on the same mark as when narrowly failing to land a decent big-field 2m handicap at York in August last year. He’s a nice price in my book….

Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are paying 1/5 the first 7 places. You can get 1/5 the first 5 and 1/4 the first 4 generally. Note: it’s still early days and additional deals will emerge as the day goes on….

Nick’s contrarian picks….

To recap on where my idea of the value lies tomorrow afternoon….

In the Golden Mile (3.00 @ Goodwood).

In the Unibet 3 Boosts A Day Goodwood Handicap  (1.50 @ Goodwood).

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The final word….

That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow. Meanwhile….

Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd