Stat angles - what the stats say about the Derby winner....

Last Updated: 25.05.2022

Wednesday, 25th May 2022

Stat angles - what the stats say about the Derby winner….

I left something out of my piece yesterday – where I was talking about the Dosage Index profiles of Derby winners….

32 of the last 38 Derby winners had 4 or more B points in their respective Dosage Profiles – or 84.2%....

---- B is for Brilliant and represents speed influences within the wider Dosage Profile….

That’s a strong stat – certainly strong enough to take some notice of….

And what it tells us is that a bit of speed is a positive feature in the Dosage Profile of a horse heading into the Derby….   

  • Key stats in the historic record….

The Dosage Index is one thing….

But – just as there’s more than one way to skin a cat – there’s more than one way to figure out a route to a potential Derby winner….

Right now, there are 21 horses still in with a chance of a run at Epsom on Saturday week and other elements of the historic record can help us form a view on which to consider backing and which to swerve….

The historic record provides us with some very very-strong clues, yardsticks and trends that enable us to take a view on which of this year’s runners might be the best-fit for the race....

Be warned: not all the horses the stats draw attention to will be fancied horses. That’s the upside of testing the market’s assumptions and beliefs. Sometimes, they can turn out to be wrong-headed....

My records go back 28 years. Here’s what that record reveals....

There are some strong experience-based pointers to consider….

  • 27 of those 28 winners had raced at least twice
  • 26 had raced no more than twice during the current season
  • 25 had raced within the previous 5 weeks
  • 24 had not raced below Listed class during the current season
  • 23 had raced no more than 5 times (14 no more than 3 times)

And there are some specific form-related yardsticks to bear in mind….

  • 24 of the last 28 winners had not been outside first 2 that season
  • 23 had scored a career best RPR last time out
  • In 18 of the last 23 years, the winner of the Derby had already produced a performance on the track worth a Racing Post rating of at least 118….
  • 22 had a winning strike rate of 50%+
  • 21 had won last time out

And what happened to the Derby winners as juveniles also has a bearing on how you might assess the chances of the individual runners in this season’s Derby renewal….

  • 25 of the last 28 winners had won at 7f as juveniles
  • 24 had made their racing debut at the 7f trip or a mile
  • 19 were good enough to produce a Racing Post rating of 82+ on debut

And there are a couple of class-related stats to think about….

  • 15 of the last 20 winners had already appeared at G1 or G2 level (11 registering a win)
  • 12 of the last 18 winners had contested a G1 or G2 last time out

Test the runners in this season’s field against each of those yardsticks and you’ll have the beginnings of an informed and in-the-round view of which runners look most like a traditional Derby winner pre-race….

That’s a lot more than most of the people you will be betting against are working with at this stage of proceedings….

  • The final word….

That’s all from me for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….

Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd