Tuesday, 2nd April 2024
I’m always open to questions….
…. and over the weekend comes this one from AB – a long-time friend and supporter of this column….
“Kitty’s Light for the Grand National, what’s your thoughts?”
The first thing to say is that Kitty’s Light is a grand little handicapper….
He seems to have been around forever….
…. but he’s still only 8-years-old….
…. he’s gotten better with age….
…. and it’s entirely possible that he’s yet to hit the peak of his powers over fences….
He’s won seven of the 24 chase handicaps he’s contested @ 29.1%....
…. he’s placed in seven more – which equates to a total place strike rate of 45.8%....
…. and last year he won the Eider Chase, the bet365 Gold Cup and the Scottish Grand National – three major-league staying handicaps – on the bounce….
You could live a lifetime and not see that happen again….
Previously, he’d placed in a Badger, a bet365 Gold Cup, a Coral Trophy Handicap Chase, another bet365 Gold Cup and a Scottish Grand National….
That’s quite the curriculum vitae….
…. one that’s amassed his connections prize money of just over £439k….
Were he to win next week’s Grand National at Aintree….
…. his accumulated winnings would amount to almost a million….
…. not bad at all for a horse trained in deepest Wales by Christian Williams – a talented trainer (no doubt) but not one of the big-gun handlers….
And who among us would begrudge Kitty’s Light the biggest win of them all for a handicap chaser?
Certainly not me….
He’s not guaranteed a run in the big one just yet….
…. he sits 38th on the list this morning….
…. with 34 set to go to post on the day….
…. and he’s poised to sneak in towards the bottom of the weights – which wouldn’t be a bad place to be….
The ante-post market has him in as the fourth favourite at a general 14s….
…. so it’s not like he’s been missed….
…. but – if he’s good enough – that quote would look plenty juicy in hindsight….
Now, let’s get down to a bit more of the nitty-gritty….
Is he well-handicapped on a mark of 146?
He’s certainly not as well-handicapped as he has been….
He won last year’s Eider off 132….
…. before taking the Scottish Grand National and the bet365 Gold Cup off 140….
He’s not on a career-high mark heading into Aintree….
… having ranked as high as 149 in the past….
…. but I have to say he never figured in the four handicaps he’s contested off 146 or higher….
That said he did go very well in the 2022 edition of the bet365 Gold Cup off 145….
…. and he found just one too good – his very well-handicapped stablemate Win My Wings – in that same year’s renewal of the Scottish Grand National off 143….
On that evidence he’s definitely not totally out of things….
He’s only had two goes over fences this term….
…. in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury off 147….
…. and in last month’s Ultima at the Festival off 146….
…. with his other three runs this season coming over hurdles….
Connections have rolled the dice when the money’s been there….
…. but have otherwise sought to protect his mark….
…. from going down (which might have meant not getting into the Grand National at all)….
…. and from going up (which would have made life harder than it already is after last season’s winning streak)….
It didn’t work out in either big chase assignment this term….
…. but I get the impression his connections believe there might still be a bit more to come from him – if or when things fall right….
…. perhaps a last step up the progression curve to his own personal performance summit….
…. but how much of that is wishful thinking – I cannot quantify….
He’s never been over the big Aintree fences….
…. and you never know how individual horses will take to them until they have a go….
…. but one thing Kitty’s Light has proved – conclusively – in his chasing career to date….
…. is that he can jump….
…. like the proverbial stag….
In 25 assignments over fences he’s never once fallen….
…. and never once unseated his rider….
In other words – he’s been a sure-footed and safe conveyance….
Of course, that’s not a guarantee that he’ll thrive at Liverpool….
…. or that he’s somehow immune to future errors….
…. or that he’ll avoid trouble in running…. and plain bad luck….
But it is a big positive…..
To win you have to get round….
…. he’s got a track record of getting round jump tracks better than most….
…. and that counts for something….
Another big positive – April is very much Kitty’s Light’s month….
…. this is the time of the year when he really does come to hand….
Five of his best six chasing RPRs….
…. four of those registering 150+….
…. were produced in the month of April….
Only 20% of his career runs over fences were conducted in the month of April….
…. but they account for 63% of his career winnings….
He’s been well above par in previous Aprils….
…. and you can expect him to be primed and ready to rock-and-roll at Aintree next weekend – that’s for sure….
Will he stay the trip?
As is the case with many of next week’s runners – who knows. For most it will be something new….
…. and Kitty’s Light falls into that category….
…. we won’t know for sure – until we know….
But I think the omens on this point are good – very good….
Not too may horses are staying on strong at the end of a 4m Scottish Grand National….
…. or a 4m2f Eider Chase….
…. or at the end of a 3m5f bet365 Gold Cup….
…. but that’s what Kitty’s Light does….
A trip is what he needs…. it’s what brings out the very best in him….
…. and the extra quarter mile next weekend might just be the variable that enables him to improve again….
Let me say this – if Kitty’s Light and Corach Rambler are on the premises turning for home then we could be in for a finishing tussle that will go down as one for the ages….
For me, the ground is the big worry….
…. he wants proper fast spring ground….
…. and I’m not sure he’s going to get that….
Jumping out of slow or sticky ground isn’t going to help this diminutive horse at the big fences….
…. nor will it help with his come-late from-behind running style….
After the Ultima at Cheltenham – run on heavy ground – trainer Christian Williams said this….
“The one thing we learned at Cheltenham was we think he handled that ground, which means we could look at the Welsh National next season. That was the first time we had tried him on really heavy ground as when he was younger he struggled on that kind of going. He might have just been a bit weak back then, but he handled it okay at Cheltenham so it gives us an option.”
…. but I’m not so sure….
…. he was beaten 35-lengths and struggling far enough out….
Perhaps he’d be okay on soft….
…. but his overall record says he needs it good to soft at worst and – ideally – better….
…. if he’s going to produce his very best next weekend….
…. which is surely what will be required….
That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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