Thursday, 27th August 2025
In ATC today….
Richard Hannon’s got a ‘live’ one on his hands for the later part of the season….
…. there was no give in the official assessor’s opinion about this horse for a long period….
…. but now he’s dropped like a bomb in the rankings – and I reckon he’s ready to capitalize….
Oh…. and the evidence suggests that a big-field scenario with early pace on will suit just fine….
Read on….
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At some point it must have crossed Richard Hannon’s mind that the official assessor was never going to bend….
Between June 2024 and April 2025….
…. a period in which Witch Hunter ran a total of 11 times….
…. his rating never changed – not a single pound either up or down….
…. he remained stuck…. becalmed…. marooned…. on an official mark of 109….
Take a look at his form record and you might make a case for where the official handicapper was coming from….
Witch Hunter didn’t bank a win during the period he was rated 109….
…. in fact, it should be noted he hasn’t posted a winning performance in the last two years – a sequence stretching back some 20 runs in total….
…. but he did finish within a length of the winner in a G2, a G3 and a Listed event….
…. on-paper performances which – taken at face value – appear to be decent form….
…. or – at the very least – form decent enough to justify keeping a losing horse on a rating of 109….
But how good was that pattern form really?
With the benefit of time we can see that it didn’t really amount to very much at all….
The seven who ran in the 2024 edition of the Hungerford Stakes….
…. the G2 in which Witch Hunter finished second….
…. haven’t managed to produce a single win between them in 47 subsequent goes – a stat which tells its own unequivocal story….
Holloway Boy won the Superior Mile at Haydock – the G3 in which Witch Hunter finished third – and he’s done precisely nothing since….
The form of the Listed race at Wolverhampton – run in March of this year – is nothing to shout about either….
In short, perhaps Witch Hunter was hard done by to remain as highly rated as he was for as long as he did….
On the other hand, he did finish 3/20 in the Balmoral off 109 at the tail end of last season….
…. a performance which advertised just how dangerous Witch Hunter might become in decent handicaps if or when the handicapper saw fit to relent on his mark….
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That time has now come after a 2025 turf season that could only be described – so far at least – as underwhelming….
Following that Listed-class performance at Wolverhampton in March, Witch Hunter finished well down the field in two more Listed races at Doncaster and Ascot….
It was at that point that the handicapper changed his view – dropping the 6yo to a mark of 107….
He was dropped to 105 after finishing seventh – beaten almost 5 lengths – in May’s Victoria Cup at Ascot….
…. he was dropped again to 103 after being well-beaten in a handicap at Chester later the same month….
…. and he was dropped to 101 after being beaten more than 11 lengths in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot in June….
After being stuck for so long on 109 it was as if the blockage in the pipe had suddenly been cleared – and now the horse was in freefall….
It was after Royal Ascot that Hannon decided to give his charge a break….
I don’t know if that decision was forced on the trainer – the result of an injury or some other problem affecting the horse….
…. or whether he just wanted to withdraw the horse from the fray – for a reset…
Whatever it was, Witch Hunter wasn’t seen again until last Thursday night at Newcastle – 63 days later – where he finished 6/14 beaten 2.5 lengths….
I thought it was a perfectly reasonable return – you can judge for yourself here….
…. with the pace probably not strong enough for him to show his best at the finish….
…. but I would think he will certainly be a little sharper for the run….
The really good news is that the handicapper saw fit to drop him another couple of pounds to a mark of 99….
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It’s the first time Witch Hunter has had a two-figure rating since 2022 – when he was a 3yo….
…. and – in my humble opinion – he’s going to be very dangerous in good handicaps going forward….
I draw your attention once more to his run in the Balmoral last October – when he was third off a mark of 109 – see here….
He’s 10lb lower in the rankings now….
… he’s 4lb below the mark he last won a big handicap off – the 2023 edition of the Buckingham Palace – see here….
…. he can act on a softer surface….
…. he’s had the benefit of a midsummer break and will be fresher than most….
…. and he’s probably off the radar of most punters because he looks like a horse in a state of decline….
I don’t believe he is….
…. I reckon he’s a candidate to bounce back to form off a mark that severely underestimates his true level….
Hannon’s going to have plenty of options to prove me right with this horse going forward….
…. on turf (as I write he’s still in a handicap at Chester on Saturday)….
…. or on the AW – Witch Hunter goes well on the tapeta at Newcastle and Wolverhampton, and he has form at Lingfield….
For me – he wants a strong pace over a stiff 7f or the mile….
…. and whilst he’s run in plenty of small-field races, I reckon a big-field scenario is perfectly acceptable….
Two of his best three career performances on the RPR scale were produced in fields of 20+….
…. and it’s not like he’s been overused in that type of race – meeting 16+ opponents just five times in his 43-race career….
Bottom line: Witch Hunter’s on a fantastic mark and represents a ‘live’ one for the later part of the season….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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