Get on the pace in Saturday's Grand Sefton....

Tuesday, 4th November 2025

Get on the pace in Saturday’s Grand Sefton….

I liked this so much – I made sure it got published….

I recently came into contact with a savvy racing punter whose opened my eyes about a thing or two….

I like his approach to making a few quid out of the midweek racing so much….

…. I pestered my publisher – night and day – until he agreed to turn it into a brand-new racing service….

…. and it’s coming very soon….

Be among the very first to find out more….

In ATC today….

Towards the front end of the pace is the place to be in Saturday’s Grand Sefton at Aintree….

…. data from the last 16 editions of the Grand Sefton proves the case.…

…. and the last 16 editions of the Topham Chase – run over the same track and trip – provides the argument with additional support….

Oh…. and this guy I’ve been talking to has a lot to say. Now – thanks to me – he’s getting the chance to put his money where his mouth is….

Read on….

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It’s not impossible to win Saturday’s Grand Sefton at Aintree from off the pace….

…. Gas Line Boy won in 2017 with the Racing Post’s comments in running detailing him as ‘held up’….

In truth he was never really that far back – but these things are relative, and he did come from further back than winners usually do….

Just 11 ran that day – and perhaps the small field played a part in his victory….

Only two other Grand Sefton winners since 2009 won from mid-division or worse – and one of those also contested an 11-runner renewal….

Being up with the pace is usually the right place to be in the Grand Sefton – if you’re going to win it….

The table below details how 13 of the last 16 winners were running in the early stages….

All 13 were in the first quartile….

…. and that’s the percentage play – to be up with the pace early on. It’s not easy to make ground from the back….

Once the horses up-top get into a rhythm over the National fences – reduced in size as they are these days – pegging them back is a big task….

…. and hold-up horses on the chase in the later stages simply can’t afford to make mistakes….

…. any loss of go-forward momentum in that scenario will prove fatal….

Of course, the Grand Sefton isn’t the only race run over the 2m5f trip and the National fences….

…. April’s Topham Chase presents horses with pretty much the same challenge….

…. and the outcome of that race since 2009 confirms that up-front is a better place to be early doors than out-the-back….

A much bigger field goes to post for the Topham….

…. but that doesn’t change the fact that the on the pace is where you want to be….

Eleven of the last 16 Topham winners were up-front early doors….

As with the Grand Sefton the stats are not 100% rock solid….

…. horses can win a Topham from an early position of midfield or worse – but the percentage play is to be close to the pace….

Taking the data from Grand Sefton and the Topham together – 24 of the last 32 winners were somewhere close to the pace early doors….

Punters who like a solid stat are advised to take that on board when digging out a selection for Saturday’s Grand Sefton….

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Age considerations….

Stats and trends are not a 100% reliable method of selection….

…. but they do tell us what’s happened before….

…. and it’s reasonable to consider the view that what happened most frequently before might well happen again….

Apply that rationale to Saturday’s Grand Sefton and youth is a negative….

Young horses of 6 or 7 can win – King Turgeon (6), Bill Baxter (7), Dark Room (6) and As De Mee (6) all won in recent years….

…. but 79 additional qualifiers produced just 10 placers….

The sweet spot would be populated by horses aged 8 or 9….

…. producing 15 of the last 22 winners – and 29 more placers….

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I play the high-value handicaps run at weekends and at the big Festivals….

…. and I avoid fancied horses as a matter of default….

A punter I’ve recently become acquainted with says I do everything wrong….

…. now he’s going to get a chance to put his money where his mouth is….

…. because my publisher has agreed to publish his midweek racing service….

I don’t mind admitting that we’re all pretty excited about it….

Want to know more?

Get on the Priority Waiting List – and you’ll be first in line for all the upcoming details….

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That’s all for today….

Back tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd