Wednesday, 4th February 2026
In ATC today….
Last week delivered another betting profit….
…. the stats didn’t let us down….
…. and the angle they highlighted is worth another look at next month’s Cheltenham Festival….
Oh…. and here’s why I don’t do what this ATC reader suggests….
Read on….
-----
A chaotic three-day period across the weekend….
…. characterized by track inspections, an abandonment, a rearranged card, and a lot of kerfuffle at my end….
…. ended with a small betting profit of 5.2 points – at 1pt e/w to advised prices (the standard by which we record results at ATC)….
It would have been better had either He Can’t Dance or Golden Joy won rather than placed in Monday’s big handicaps at Leopardstown….
…. or if He Can’t Dance had placed at the price he was when first advised on Friday rather than at 60% of that price as was the case when the market was reformed following the loss of that Day 1 card on Saturday….
Of course, it’s also the case that the bottom-line outcome would have improved – markedly – had I not put up so many horses that produced no return at all….
…. including a couple of fallers (I don’t get too many of those) and one that pulled-up….
But that’s the nature of handicap betting….
…. I’m never going to get it all right – or anything like….
What I hope to do is to get enough right at sufficiently good prices to get in front across the long term….
…. with the odd golden day when plenty does go our way delivering some bumper returns to the mix….
All that said – if I could bank 5.2 points of betting profit every week of the year, I’d take it in a heartbeat….
-----
I take full credit for Star of Guiting’s win at Musselburgh on Saturday – I hope you got the best of the prices….
That was an out-and-out Nick Pullen value pick….
…. a case of watching races….
…. assessing performances….
…. and figuring out where the market’s opinion might be skewed….
In the case of the two horses that placed in the big handicaps at Leopardstown on Monday….
…. the stats played their part – alerting me to Danny Gilligan’s excellent recent record on Gordon-Elliott-trained handicappers at the meeting (decent prices too)….
…. and encouraging me to zero-in on his rides….
Of course, the horses had to tick the right boxes too….
…. I wouldn’t be backing Gilligan if he were riding something out form, unsuited to conditions, or handicapped to the hilt…
But the stats acted as a shortcut….
…. revealing an angle of approach that most punters were/are totally oblivious to….
…. and Danny Gilligan didn’t let us down….
The same angle is worth bearing in mind at Cheltenham next month….
Jack Kennedy gets first pick of Elliott’s handicappers – but I reckon Gilligan gets the next pick….
…. and when you think about how many horses Gordon Elliott has in his care….
…. and the quality of horse he attracts….
…. it stands to reason he’s often going to have more than one well-handicapped runner in the valuable big-field handicaps at major meetings….
Some readers will recall how Gilligan dug me out of a tight spot at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival with his win on Better Days Ahead in the Martin Pipe on the last day….
…. and he landed two more wins in handicaps at last year’s Festival – on Jazzy Matty in the Grand Annual and on Wodhooh in the Martin Pipe (again)….
That’s not bad going – in the most competitive races at the most competitive jumps meeting on the British programme – for a jockey whose pretty much off the radar of most punters….
And let’s not overlook the fact that Jack Kennedy isn’t always going to be on the number one horse for the Elliott yard in a big handicap….
Kennedy doesn’t do weights below 10-7 so Gilligan – who goes as low as 10-1 – would be the man to get the ride on a good one off a low weight….
These things are good to know – because most of the punters you’ll be betting against next month don’t….
-----
I mentioned last week how I felt like I’d missed out on a couple of winners….
…. with Donnacha and Dartmoor Pirate winning at Cheltenham and Doncaster having been the last horses to be struck from my shortlist in their respective races….
It prompted an email from an old friend of this column, FH….
“l know a lot of your clients don't like 2 or more selections in the same race, me personally l have no problem with that whatsoever and surely at the time of going public with your selections if you're 2nd or 3rd choice is trading at what you consider a value price a nod in that direction surely would not go amiss?”
I totally get where FH is coming from here….
…. and I’m not at all adverse to backing around the board – particularly when there are big prices available about interesting horses on the Betfair Exchange….
But I can tell you that on those occasions when I put up two horses in a single race (something I don’t do so much of these days)….
…. it triggers dog’s abuse – and plenty of it – in some quarters….
If I were to start earmarking horses as second or third choices in races – value or not – I shudder to think about the consequences….
On the one hand I’d have confused readers asking, “which one do I back?” or “am I supposed to back them all?”….
…. and on the other I’d have another group of outraged readers accusing me of trying to cover all the bases and tip everything in the race….
You can see why I wouldn’t want to make a rod for my own back?
-----
That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
Brought to you by Spa Publishing Group Ltd @ 2026 
