Thursday, 7th May 2026
In ATC today….
…. I bring you my best picks on Day 3 at Chester….
I’m on PEAKY BLINDER in the 3.05 – up at 8s….
…. I’m on AULD TOON LOON at 18s in the 1.30….
…. and I’m on CLONMACASH at 18s & 16s in the 3.40….
That’s the summary….
…. you’ll find all my reasoning below – as per usual….
Oh…. and if you’re looking for the standout place terms on offer – you’ll find them in the Bet Box below….
Read on….
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…. the Chester Cup - Chester – 3.05....
It’s not impossible – of course – to win the Chester Cup from a double-figure stall….
…. after all, nine horses have done just that across the last 23 renewals….
But the stats suggest preference be given to runners from single-figure starting berths….
…. which operate at a total place strike rate of 28.2% over the period….
…. compared to the 18.4% figure produced by the double-figure stalls….
…. with a pretty equal participation rate – 195 v 184 – on each side of the divide….
The one I like on the low side is PEAKY BLINDER at the general 8s….
He did it very nicely over 2m at Southwell on seasonal debut in April under Oisin Murphy….
…. requiring nothing more than hands and heels in the closing stages to pull clear of the small field and win comfortably….
The level was no great shakes and he will certainly need to improve again off a mark that’s risen 6lb….
…. but he hit the line hard that last day and there is more to come….
Some might see it as a negative that Murphy rides Andrew Balding’s other runner, Berkshire Sundance – who starts in stall 15….
…. but Peaky Blinder gets in right at the bottom of the weights tomorrow – and 8-8 might just be an ask for the champion jockey….
Plus, Jason Watson is no bad reserve at Chester….
…. of all the riders in tomorrow’s race only Ryan Moore has ridden more winners at the track than Watson over the last five years….
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…. the Great Cheshire – Chester – 1.30....
AULD TOON LOON was an unlucky loser in this race last year….
…. and he’s worth a crack at the 18s to get compensation off just a 3lb higher mark….
He’s drawn in stall 14 which isn’t ideal….
…. but it’s not his style to go forward and he’ll be able to drop in and come late as is his wont….
The gaps didn’t open for him last year – in a smaller field too – and he’ll be dependent on some good fortune in running….
…. but that’s factored into the price….
He was only just held last year and I can’t imagine this assignment has been anything but the plan over the close season….
He didn’t need a prep run last year, he hasn’t had one this time around, and I think it will be a case of as you were….
…. but with jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin tasked with getting daylight a bit sooner than he found it last term….
Auld Toon Loon won at this track back in 2023 and if you were to design a winning opportunity for this horse then Chester would almost certainly be part of it….
I reckon he’s a player at a price….
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…. the Tom Jones – Chester – 3.40....
Ado McGuinness’s CLONMACASH is worth a punt at the general 18s & 16s for this one….
He’s been in rude form – producing his four career-best performances on the RPR scale since the turn of the year….
…. his best coming last-time-out at Dundalk at the start of April….
For a horse that’s done so much running at that track over the 6f trip….
…. it’s a little surprising that he’s never been tried on a left-hander over 6f on turf….
That happens for the first time tomorrow – in a race offering the most valuable prize this horse has ever raced for….
…. and I wonder if the two variables are connected in some way….
Like I say – the 5yo’s fit, in-form and firing….
…. in other words – the iron’s hot, the money’s there, and the turning track at this trip might just unlock that bit more required….
He’s got the inside draw too – meaning he’ll have less distance to travel than some of his opponents….
He’s more exposed – on paper – than most….
…. but he’s a right-now horse….
…. probably never in better shape or mindset to capitalise on just such an opportunity….
It’s a swing of the bat – for sure. But that’s how I am….
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Now, just to recap….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets…. In the 3.05 @ Chester….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 6 places. It’s 5 places generally…. In the 1.30 @ Chester….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 5 places. It’s 4 places generally…. In the 3.40 @ Chester….
e/w terms = Sky Bet pay 5 places. It’s 4 places generally…. Advised prices are correct at the point of publication – but subject to fluctuation. Shop around – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
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That’s all for today….
I’ll be back with more tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
And remember – win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing….
Stay tuned….
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