Wednesday, 20th May 2026

“…. Brian Ellison’s got an interesting handicapper on his hands….”

ICYMI – horses to follow….

In ATC today….

Brian Ellison’s got an interesting handicapper on his hands….

…. draw analysis never gets any easier….

…. and Robert Cowell’s new inmate is one to keep in mind….

Oh…. and there’s more to come from me tomorrow….

Read on….

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I didn’t think much of the Jorvik at York – watch here – which was run at a pedestrian pace….

One who wanted to go quicker was Brian Ellison’s relatively new recruit – St Etienne….

Sent off at 50s the market gave him no chance after a couple of underwhelming performances since joining Ellison from France in March….

…. but he’s interesting because – despite finishing just 4/10 and beaten more 6+ lengths – he gave the impression he’s coming to hand….

Connections paid 100,000 euros for him in July and he didn’t race again until the spring – the handicapper awarding an opening mark of 100….

That was based on the 6yo’s win in a big-field handicap at Longchamp last summer….

…. but he’s swiftly dropped 8lb (down 2lb for last week) and looks nicely handicapped now….

Ellison’s had a quiet year with just five winners from 112 runners….

…. but the tide will turn and St Etienne is an interesting handicapper going forward….

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Years ago draw study was my primary angle of attack….

I was a young and inexperienced punter….

…. and the idea that one side of the track (or one part) might be more advantageous than another (for whatever reason) made sense….

I understood the idea (important because so much in racing is unfathomable and arcane to new recruits)….

…. and being able to get into the game from an intelligible angle I could think about and develop on my own did much to keep me engaged and motivated….

The pursuit supplied winners too….

…. horses picked out from what I considered the right side….

…. others noted because of big races run from the wrong side….

It’s human nature to remember the good outcomes….

…. but – even then – the most common experience was confusion….

…. with races often working out differently than anticipated….

I was reminded of that time last week at York with the two big sprint handicaps – the Churchill Tyres & the Lindum – panning out differently….

Over 6f in the Churchill Tyres on Day 1 – review here….

….. horses drawn high – my pick Fast Track Harry included – were smashed by the horses drawn low….

…. and five the first six home were drawn 4,6,3,1 & 5….

Runner-up Binhareer was the confounding presence….

…. he wasn’t drawn high in stall 9 – but he did run on a different part of the track to the others….

…. and came from much further back….

…. proving himself a moral winner and the best horse (in my book)….

Next day in the Lindum over 5f it was all change – see here….

…. with six of the first seven coming from double-figure stalls….

…. and low numbers barely getting a look in….

Of course, there’s always more to it than just the draw….

…. track position adopted during the race plays a part….

…. so too the pace the race is run at and where on the track that pace materializes….

…. and downright slow or out-of-form horses are unlikely to figure – whichever stall they start in (advantaged or not)….

I gradually moved away from draw study when I got tired of races turning out nothing like envisaged….

My pre-race analysis often felt like an awful lot of wasted effort….

…. and I imagine draw students trying to make sense of those sprints at York last week felt similarly frustrated….

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Robert Cowell’s got Purosangue running well since the 5yo joined him from Andrew Balding’s yard at the end of March….

First-time-up for his new yard he ran with credit over 5f at Pontefract….

…. and then on Saturday he produced another decent effort at Newbury when 4/14 and beaten just over a length in the big 6f handicap – see here….

…. a decent race in which he encountered some seriously in-form horses – three of which beat him home….

Purosangue did a lot of his running in the early part of his career in pattern races….

…. earning himself a career-high rating of 107 and operating at a three-figure rating for 14 races on the bounce….

Right now, he sits on a career-low rating of 96….

…. and whilst he’s never won a handicap, he has run well enough to suggest he can – off the right mark….

He wasn’t beaten so very far in last season’s Wokingham off 103….

…. and he was fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup off 98 having been sent off favourite….

It might be that he needs a couple more points shaved off his rating….

…. but he’s very much one to keep in mind as the season progresses….

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That’s all for today….

Back tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd