".... I guess I just got lucky...."

Monday, 8th June 2026

“…. I guess I just got lucky….”

>>>>> Upcoming targets on ATC….

In ATC today….

Spare a thought for poor old Andrew Cooper….

…. punters are complaining that he ruined the Derby meeting with his handling of the ground….

…. but not for me – I guess I just got lucky….

Oh…. and make sure you tune in tomorrow because I’ve got something really useful that will help you at Royal Ascot next week….

Read on….

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Poor old Andrew Cooper….

…. he’s been the Clerk of the Course at Epsom for three decades….

…. but the job doesn’t get any easier….

…. and he’s really getting it in the neck from punters who think he ruined the Derby meeting with his handling of the ground leading up to the racing on Friday & Saturday….

I’m no expert on these matters….

….. and I tend to the view that whatever was done was done with the best intentions based on the best information available at the time – or at least the best interpretation of it….

…. but it’s not a straightforward job – and I certainly wouldn’t want it….

When you’ve had a dry month do you water or wait for rain….

I suppose the answer to that question would depend on what rain is headed your way….

…. but if none or not sufficient is forecast then do you continue to sit on your hands and run the risk of the track drying out to the point it becomes a road….

And if you choose to water….

…. and the weather forecast proves inaccurate and rain falls in quantities significantly greater than predicted….

…. how do you get the water you’ve put onto the track off again….

Of course, you can’t. You’re committed. The die is cast and the damage is done….

…. and I guess that’s the tricky spot Cooper found himself in – or something like it – last week….

It’s a shame, of course….

…. but it wasn’t the first time the state of the track’s taken center stage at a big meeting – and it won’t be the last….

I don’t know what the answer is or if there even is an answer at all….

…. at least one that wouldn’t prove fallible to the frustrating outrages that the British weather will inevitably serve up at some point….

Perhaps someone should ask AI – it seems to know everything else….

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Lots of punters were wailing and gnashing their teeth by the time the field went to post for the finale – the JRA Tokyo Trophy – on Saturday evening….

…. complaining that Cooper’s stewardship of the ground had turned the races into unfathomable lotteries that no longer made any sense to anybody….

I guess I must’ve just got lucky – very lucky….

…. and there’s not quite so much sarcasm in the statement as you might presume….

Methods evolve…. lessons are learned…. old ways are discarded…. new ideas come to the fore…. and you adjust your approach like a man fine-tuning a radio for optimum reception that is never quite achieved….

…. nothing stays the same in this game – at least not for me – and the way I approach races is in a permanent state of flux….

Something that’s changed over the past couple of years is that I’m not giving so much weight to factors and variables I can’t quantify or establish the truth of with any real confidence or conviction….

Predicting which part of the draw or the track will be favoured in any one race is a job for a clairvoyant these days….

…. so too pace prediction – and how the race will be run….

…. and I think very much the same way about the ground nowadays – I’m not paying anywhere near as much attention to it as I used to….

I don’t ignore it entirely of course, that would be foolish….

…. but going descriptions can’t be entirely trusted….

…. the form book is full of erroneous detail about the state of the ground on any given day….

…. and that – in turn – creates a lot of false information in the record of individual horses….

When you can’t trust information to be accurate and/or reliable, should you place too much stock on it in your deliberations....

I don’t think so….

…. and these days I’m letting my picks take their chance whatever the going description and whatever their records say about their propensity to handle the ‘official’ going….

Perhaps that’s where I got lucky over the weekend….

…. all the traditionally important factors and variables that misled other punters no longer carry such great weight in my own reckonings….

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But perhaps there was just a little skill involved too….

…. a modicum of handicap nous….

…. some silky footwork….

…. and quick spiteful hands that landed solid blows in a sequence of tough races….

I had a couple of winners on Saturday….

…. Arklow Lad – advised at 11s – beat 19 home in the Dash….

…. Too Soon – advised at 11s – beat 12 home in the Northern Dancer….

…. James J Braddock (11s) & Gold Star Hero (8s) also ran big races for me in big fields on Derby day….

…. whilst Spoken Truth (12s) & Hot Cash (16s) both hit the frame in 16- and 18-runner fields on Friday….

…. and it’s quite possible that punters who played my seven picks across the two days got a return in six of them….

I think that’s pretty fair going….

It would have been nice to get one of the Friday placers to go in….

…. but I’ve got no complaints – and I hope you were happy with the performance of the horses I picked out and the returns they banked….

Long-time friend of this column BA got in touch after racing on Saturday….

“Brilliant couple of days for you with 2 wins and the others all in the top 6. Well impressed! Thanks for the great advice. You're a classic example of the need to be in this game for the long haul and not lose faith after a bad month or 2.”

You know what?

…. I reckon BA might be on to something….

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That’s all for today….

Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk

Back tomorrow – make sure you tune in because I’ve got something really useful that will help you at Royal Ascot next week….

Stay tuned….

Against the Crowd