Thursday, 23rd July 2026
In ATC today….
The Stewards’ Cup is the 6f handicap everybody wants to win….
…. 4yos or 5yos rated 100+ represent the percentage play….
…. horses coming out of the Wokingham are a good place to start ….
Oh…. and don’t back one coming off a break….
Read on….
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Glorious Goodwood starts next Tuesday….
…. I’m going to be focused on that meeting from Monday onwards….
…. so, this week is the week to get a bit of spadework done….
I’ve identified jockeys with a profitable track record on different parts of the track….
…. and I’ve nominated a trainer who is always worth a second look in the big handicaps at Goodwood….
Today, the focus is on the feature handicap, the Stewards Cup – run on the Saturday….
…. it’s the race you most want to win if you own or train a top-level 6f handicapper….
…. more than the Wokingham…. more than the Ayr Gold Cup…. the other two 6f handicap sprints offering six-figure prize money to winning connections….
The Stewards Cup carries massive prestige. It’s been a component of the British racing summer since 1840….
I can’t remember what I backed that afternoon – or how many went to post. But expect a maximum field of 28 a week on Saturday or something close….
All you need to do then is to figure out which one you want to back….
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The winner takes home almost £130k – a prize fund big enough to attract quality animals….
Eleven of the last 15 winners had a three-figure official rating – including eight of the last eleven winners….
The horses in the 90s had been finding it harder….
There were plenty rated in the 90s in the 2018 renewal – but 5 of the first 7 were rated 100+ – from a total representation of just 9 runners....
In 2019 more than half the field were rated in the 90s – but 6 of the first 8 were rated 100+….
The trend broke to some degree in 2020. Winner Summerghand was rated 108 – but the next four were in the 90s….
In 2021 the first two home were rated 100+ – with horses in the 90s filling the next six spots. In 2022, the first three were rated 100+.
Then the tide turned a little….
2023 was a better renewal for the horses rated in the 90s – the winner was rated 95 and the three of the next four home were rated in the 90s….
…. in 2024 the race went to a horse rated 98 – albeit with two of the next four rated 100+….
…. and last year the winner was rated 95 – and the four horses that hit the frame were also rated in the 90s….
The split between runners rated 100+ and 99 or lower is pretty much even over the last 16 years – 205/219….
…. the runners rated 100+ have a superior win strike rate….
…. the total place strike rate is more a case of honours even….
Going strictly by the numbers and given the greater number of winners rated 100+, you might still say that group of horses represent the percentage play….
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In terms of age, the 4yos and 5yos are the percentage play….
…. sheer weight of numbers tells you so – they won 15 of the last 24 renewals….
…. and impact values (measuring total places against participation rates) support the assertion – as the table below (covering the last 24-years) shows….
The 4yos and 5yos enjoy a slight edge over the other age-groups – producing placed finishers 13% to 10% more frequently than chance says they ought to….
The 3yo horses are a little off the pace – producing placers 22% less than chance dictates….
…. almost as far off the pace as the horses aged 7+ – a group with an impact value of 0.77 – meaning they produce placed finishes 23% less frequently than pure chance says they should….
Horses aged 6 have just about held their own and produced what you’d expect in terms of total places – a close-to-par impact value of 0.98 tells you that….
No age group enjoys a hugely dominant advantage over the others. It wouldn’t take much of a swing in results for horses aged 3 to 6 to look much of a muchness….
Perhaps the big lesson is to avoid older horses – they’ve clearly had the worst of it over the last two decades….
But then there’s another school of thought – a contrarian school of thought – that says older horses might be the place to look for something totally underestimated on the basis of these stats….
This year’s older group – coming into the race under a statistical shadow – might just be where the value lies….
…. it depends how on how you choose to look at these things….
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Just one horse in 24-years won having not raced during the previous 8-weeks. And that makes sense….
This is the hottest 6f handicap of the year….
…. the best handicappers show up….
…. for some their entire season has been mapped around this race….
…. plenty show up in hot form…..
…. and the race might be just that bit tougher for a horse lacking match-sharpness....
One day, a horse will buck the trend. Trends are there to be smashed, after all. But, generally, a prep race is a plus....
Other useful pointers to note....
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One more thing….
…. the Wokingham is a significant supplier of Stewards’ Cup winners….
Twelve of the last 24 winners had appeared in the big 6f handicap run at Ascot’s Royal meeting....
The Wokingham form looks set to be well represented again this time around – with 19 of the 27 that went to post at Ascot in June holding an entry for the Stewards Cup….
…. among them – Completely Random (2nd), Soldier’s Tree (3rd), Far Above Dream (4th), Mitbaahy (5th), and Binhareer (6th)….
That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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