Thursday, 27th August 2026
>>>>> Take-out horses from York….
In ATC today….
When your selection drifts in the market….
…. sometimes it is crisis….
…. sometimes it is opportunity….
Oh…. and if you missed my take-out horses from York – click on the link inside….
Read on….
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PC wrote in with this….
“How do you cope with massive drifters? I backed today at Newmarket at 14s. Looked later on Betfair and it’s 26. If it was a value bet at 14 when is it not a value bet? What action do you take if any?”
The example refers back to a race earlier in the season….
…. but there are myriad examples every day….
Sooner or later, you’ll back a drifter….
…. they’re an unavoidable feature of the game….
It happened to me a couple of times last week at York – Spartan Arrow in the HKJC World Pool Handicap on Wednesday….
I put him up at 28s & 33s on the Tuesday….
…. and he ended up at a Betfair SP of 100.10….
In other words, the money had spoken eloquently – against him….
…. and he’d take a long walk in the betting….
In such instances, I’m not sure it’s a matter of coping….
It’s not a situation to be wildly enthusiastic about….
…. but you have no choice but to cope.
It is what it is – the market’s gone against you….
The problem you face as a punter – in terms of what to do next (or not) – is figuring out why….
Because not all drifters are the same….
The weather can change, for example….
…. the forecasts you consulted before making your selection have turned out to be erroneous….
…. the rain has come, the ground has softened, and the market has recalibrated – on the basis of this new information….
Your horse is now considered a less likely winner than he was before – and has drifted in price as a consequence….
There’s not much you can do about that other than choke it down like a man….
It’s just one of several problems associated with going into the market early – as I do….
Going into the market early means you run the risk of being blindsided by situations that develop on race day….
On the day of the race, earlier races on the card might reveal that a particular part of the track is advantaged….
…. there might be a fresher and faster strip of ground on the rail….
…. or the horses coming up the middle appear to have the advantage….
…. or it might be a positional thing….
…. for example, a strong tailwind making front runners difficult to catch up the straight….
All these things might account for a drift in the price of affected horses….
…. and I’d take a view – because that’s all you can do….
I’m already committed. I can’t back out of my original bet at the price I’ve taken….
…. but, if I thought the market was overreacting to a developing scenario….
…. and that the revised price about my selection represented a bit of value….
…. then I would go in again….
The real problems arise when your horse takes a long walk in the betting for no apparent reason….
That's a different scenario entirely….
That kind of drift is more often than not an expression of information that isn't (or wasn’t) in the public domain….
…. or information which hasn't (until now) found widespread reception….
There’s some form of negative vibe at work in these instances….
…. but you don’t know what it is….
…. you don’t know what’s happened….
…. you don’t know what’s at the root of it…
…. and you don’t know why the market has turned so cold….
All you can see is a price on the drift – like a dinghy caught on a strong riptide….
There are forces at work – you know that for sure because you can see the effect – but they’re unseen and essentially hidden from view….
This can be confusing. And – more often than not – it’s a bad omen….
I hate it when it happens….
…. because I know I’ve likely done my money before the horses are even loaded into the stalls….
In that scenario – when I can’t really figure out why the horse is drifting like a barge….
…. I just take it as a big negative and put it down to experience….
I certainly don’t go in again with more money….
All that said a walk in the market is not always a portent of certain defeat….
For example, I've seen plenty of older horses drift in the market and then run well in big handicaps….
In other words, the drift in price wasn’t about fitness, conditions, or lack of expectation at home….
… instead, it had more to do with an inherent market bias….
…. that favours young unexposed horses over those of veteran status….
I guess – like most things in life (and betting) – drifters must be dealt with on a case by case basis….
Sometimes it is crisis….
…. other times opportunity….
…. but it’s all part of the fun….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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