Wednesday, 23rd September 2026
In ATC today….
The stats are clear….
…. young horses have had the best of it in the Cambridgeshire….
…. but the value might be found in going another way….
Oh…. and not everybody missed Station X at the weekend….
Read on….
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Not everybody missed out on Station X in Saturday’s Silver Cup – see yesterday’s missive….
…. old friend of the column DO writes in with this….
“I was watching the morning line on Saturday when the biblical downpour occurred which prompted me to look at horses with heavy form. There were only 3 of which Station X was one. I remembered last week when it was put up by you. I backed it this time and thought it would fade in the final furlong but fair play it stayed on well to just get the photo.”
If I played some very small hand in the fancy footwork that enabled DO to adapt to changing conditions on Saturday morning – I’ll gladly take the plaudit with both hands….
…. I need all the crumbs of comfort and consolation that I can get….!!
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Back now to the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket on Saturday….
…. and plenty of stats-driven punters will be primarily focused on the horses aged 3 and 4….
That’s understandable when you look at some of the facts and figures….
Horses aged 3 or 4 have won 16 of the last 24 Cambridgeshire renewals (as far back as my detailed records go)….
…. and it’s worth keeping in mind that the 3yos get a 5lb weight-for-age allowance from the older horses….
Some of the 3yos that won this race were Group horses masquerading as handicappers – think Wissahickon in 2018 & Lord North in 2019….
…. and their inherent class edge….
…. allied with a protected mark….
…. combined with the generous (some would say) weight allowance so late in the season….
…. makes it pretty difficult for the older and more exposed horses to compete when they run into one of these on-the-up monsters….
In terms of Impact Value (IV) across the 24-year period I’ve been studying….
…. the 3yos have a win IV of 1.17 and a place IV of 1.21 – meaning they win 17% more often than chance would dictate and place 21% more often….
…. whilst the 4yos have the exact same win IV of 1.17 and a place IV of 1.14….
The older horses – aged 5+ – have an identical win and place IV of 0.69….
…. meaning they underperform pure chance by 31% in terms of wins and places….
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Of course, there are two ways of looking at this….
…. you can go with the flow….
…. buy into the numbers….
…. and split the field on the basis of age….
Or you can go against the grain….
…. take the view that the value is to be found in doing what everybody else isn’t….
…. and find the older horse in this year’s field that’s set to buck the statistical trend….
The consensus player would probably find a lot to like in the 3yo Gavriel….
…. trained by the Gosdens – just like Wissahickon & Lord North – he’s lightly raced, totally unexposed, and very progressive….
…. in his one handicap appearance to date – earlier this month at Ascot – he dished out a sound beating to Balzac who franked the form in good style on Saturday by winning the Dubai Duty Free at Newbury….
…. and he’s sitting at the top of the market no bigger than 9/2 – meaning you’ve got a lot of people to hold hands with if that’s the way you go….
The contrarian punter might find more to like with a horse like the 8yo Erzindjan….
No horse older than 7 has managed to win the Cambridgeshire since way back in 1992….
…. and an 8yo with 37 runs already under his belt – runs that have yielded just three wins – probably wouldn’t stand out as the horse to defy a record that’s stood since I was a fresh-faced young whippersnapper at University….
But – forget the stats (generalities) for a moment and let’s focus on the individual horse (specifics)….
Erzindjan seems to get better with age – his last eight runs have produced six RPRs in the 100s….
…. on his very best form he remains well-treated on a mark of 100….
…. he goes well on this track….
…. and in last year’s race he was 4/23 – beaten just 1.5 lengths – despite running on the wrong side of the track….
He smashed everything that raced on the near side with him – the next horse home on that side was more than 4l in arrears to him….
….. and he’s 10lb better off with Indalo – the one horse that beat him home last year who reopposes this year….
Some punters will see value in Gavriel at 9/2….
…. others will see it in Erzindjan at 14s….
…. others still will see no value in either horse….
That’s what makes the game so great….
I probably don’t have to tell you which horse makes more appeal to me….
…. the one that ticks the stat boxes or the one that doesn’t….
But there’s another 33 horses to consider yet….
…. and a lot more thinking to be done….
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That’s all for now. Back tomorrow….
Meantime contact me at: nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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