Thursday, 24th September 2026
In ATC today….
If I had to find the Cambridgeshire winner this morning or face a firing squad….
…. I’d back this 3yo runner at double-figures odds….
…. and here’s why….
Oh…. and don’t make the mistake of thinking these supporting numbers are some kind of fluke….
Read on….
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I like races with idiosyncratic features….
…. races that present horse and jockey with a singular challenge….
…. a unique circumstance to overcome….
…. or some unorthodox condition to deal with….
Such races offer punters opportunities to search for value using angles that wouldn’t apply in more conventional contests....
Saturday’s Cambridgeshire is just such a race….
…. because you don’t get many 9f races run up a straight….
Most punters won’t take this idiosyncratic feature into account. Instead, they’ll treat the race like any other….
…. and that’s to my benefit….
By acknowledging the unusual nature of Saturday’s race….
…. focusing on the relevance of its unique feature….
…. and mining the dataset from that perspective….
…. I can get an information edge over the market….
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Some punters will take the view that a race is a race is a race….
What’s all the fuss about the 9f trip?
What does it matter if it’s up a straight or around a bend?
Fair enough. But those assessments miss the point….
In an average season, most jockeys will race up a straight mile dozens of times. Ditto going 10f around a bend or two. They do it so often they get used to it….
You know how it is when you drive a car….
…. half the time you’re on autopilot….
You’ve driven locally so often you could do it blindfolded….
…. you know what to do and when and where to do it….
…. you don’t need to think….
…. the manoeuvres happen naturally….
…. it’s subconscious….
But if I asked to you to do it on the other side of the road – like they do in Europe – it would be a different test….
Every decision, every action, and every manoeuvre would be conscious – because we lack match practice and confidence on the other side of the road….
…. we’d be second-guessing all the way – and certainly not on autopilot….
My point is this: jockeys aren’t used to races up a 9f straight….
…. and most jockeys will lack match practice in the circumstances Saturday’s race presents….
…. what position to take….
…. how fast to go….
…. when to change gear….
…. when to hold back….
…. when to press on….
…. and when to ask for an all-out effort ….
…. none of it will be second nature….
And jockeys are no different to the rest of us….
…. confronted with an unusual challenge, some will adapt better than others….
…. some will excel while others will underachieve….
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If I had to pick the winner of this year’s Cambridgeshire – this morning – or face a firing squad….
…. I’d say back Ed Dunlop’s Pathein at this morning’s 14s….
Why?
Because it looks like he’ll be ridden by William Buick – king of Newmarket’s 9f straight….
Other jockeys – some will ride on Saturday – have a similar volume of experience in big fields up the 9f straight….
…. but none matches Buick’s record….
He’s had 34 qualifying rides since 2012 – four horses won and ten placed….
…. a win strike rate of 11.7%....
…. and a total place strike rate of 41.2% (I include 5th and 6th place finishes in 30+ runner Cambridgeshire renewals)….
…. a stellar figure when you consider 24/34 qualifying rides were in races with 16 to 33 runners….
You might say Buick got lucky with his rides….
Oasis Charm was favourite for the 2018 Suffolk Stakes….
…. Bronze Angel and Gm Hopkins were well fancied for the Cambridgeshire in 2012 and 2014….
…. but there aren’t many steering jobs in 16+ runner handicaps….
Yes, Buick was on good horses – but they still had to be ridden correctly. And it’s not like all his placed horses were shorties – five were 14s+….
Plus, jockeys don’t tend to fluke rides on good horses. They’re on those good horses because their talent, ability and skillsets are recognized and in demand….
You don’t pick just any jockey to ride a horse with a good chance in a big handicap….
…. if you’ve got any sense, you pick one of the jockeys most able to get the job done….
I put William Buick’s record up the 9f straight at Newmarket down to talent rather than good fortune….
…. he’s the best man for the test….
…. and that’s something worth knowing….
…. because most of the people you’ll bet against this weekend don’t….
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That’s all for now. Back tomorrow….
Meantime contact me at: nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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