Wednesday, 7th October 2026
In ATC today….
I sometimes think we should change the name of this service to Mission Impossible….
…. when you consider the unfathomable nature of the big handicaps we target….
…. and this weekend’s Cesarewitch provides a particularly apt case in point….
Oh…. and you’ll find the horse that’s got my antenna twitching inside….
Read on….
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I sometimes think we should call this service Mission Impossible….
…. given the nature of the races we target – the most unfathomable handicaps on the programme….
It would be a particularly apt name this weekend with the headline handicap being the Cesarewitch….
The second leg of the autumn double is a funny race – a kind of hybrid….
…. almost as if it was custom-designed to bridge the gap between the end of the flat and the start of the jumps….
For a start, the trip – 2m2f – is more typical of the jumps than the flat….
…. and yards associated with the winter game have a fine recent record in the race – winning 15/24 renewals….
…. 12/20 Cesarewitch winners had already won over hurdles….
…. and 7 had been involved at that year’s Cheltenham Festival….
…. but how much those stats will help you with the job of splitting this year’s field is open to conjecture….
…. with plenty of the 42 horses still in the race on Tuesday morning trained in recognized dual-purpose yards….
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The draw was quite a useful field-splitter until very recently….
…. being out wide on any turning track is an obvious disadvantage….
In the Cesarewitch – where as many as 36 runners have gone to post for previous renewals – getting caught out wide was a huge disadvantage….
…. one that adds up to significant yardage over the stamina-sapping trip….
In 21 previous renewals (since 2002) in which 30+ runners went to post just one winner started in a stall higher than 25….
…. and punters were able to put a line through horses in the highest quarter of the draw with confidence….
But with three renewals since 2002 producing just 24 runners or fewer….
…. the draw angle has been heavily diluted over the period – likely to the point of worthlessness….
It remains to be seen how many runners we get on Saturday – hopefully, it will be back to 30+….
…. but – however many line up at the start – you probably still want to side with something that’s already won at the trip….
…. 22/24 winners – be they flat, jumps or dual-code horses….
…. had already won a race of some description over 2 miles or beyond – demonstrating a capacity to get home….
Recent form also remains a key consideration….
…. winners of the race generally arrive on the back of a decent last-time-out placing....
…. 17/24 had produced a top-4 finish in their last race on the flat....
Weight carried is something to look at too – with 20/24 winners carrying 9-2 or less….
…. 19/24 winners had run within the last 2 months….
…. and it’s worth noting that Irish trainers have won 6/8 renewals since 2018….
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Admittedly, there’s not a whole lot to work with there – and it’s often like this with the big handicaps….
They’re not like big G1 races because winners seldom conform to a clear and consistent statistical profile that you can rely on for a strong steer year on year….
In the big handicaps – in the absence of anything that resembles a reliable blueprint – instinct is something to fall back on….
This takes time to develop, of course – and even then you can’t trust to it completely….
…. but the old radar…. the antenna…. the intuition…. feel…. juju…. call it what you will….
…. can guide you to horses of interest – one way or the other….
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Dawn Rising, for instance….
He represents a team that comprises J P McManus – the leading owner who loves to win a big handicap in the green & gold silks….
…. trainer Joseph O’Brien – whose developing a great record in big races over trips….
…. and Ryan Moore – who won the race when still a 5lb claimer in 2002 and who – if we include 5th and 6th place finishes (which plenty of bookies will pay out on) – has placed a further 8 times from 17 additional rides….
He was second in the race last term – beaten just 1.25 lengths – but he’s had an absolute shocker of a season up to this point….
…. appearing six times on the level since March – and producing form figures of 807800….
…. racing against 89 horses and beating just 17 (19.1%)….
…. and getting beaten an aggregate of 96-lengths….
For sure, he’s dropped 7lb from 102 to 95 on the back of those performances – 2lb lower than he placed off in the race last year….
…. but would you want to be taking the 8s, 7s or 6s about him bouncing back with a performance that would probably have to be accounted for in the Stewards room after the race….
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As an ante-post pick Cock And Bull makes much more appeal at 16s….
Master target trainer Emmet Mullins recently announced that the focus of his yard going forward will be the flat….
…. no doubt a cue to hit the ground running with a big Saturday afternoon winner in front of the terrestrial TV cameras….
…. and I like the early booking of James Doyle who rode The Shunter to victory in this race for Mullins back in 2023….
It feels like conscious effort to put a winning template back together….
…. and I can see the 5yo running a big one off a mark of just 91 and on the back of a very light campaign….
A race like the Cesarewitch might be something akin to Mission Impossible from a betting perspective….
…. but I choose to accept it….
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That’s all for today….
Back tomorrow….
Meantime – contact me at – nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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