Thursday, 15th October 2026
In ATC today….
I’m currently sidelined….
…. out of commission….
…. so we dive into the archive and take an opportunity to reflect on the game….
Read on….
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Don’t beat yourself up when a race goes against you....
Be mindful that you operate in an imperfect environment where the odds are stacked against you....
Race-betting’s the greatest game in the world….
…. the best game ever invented….
…. but a game it’s hard to win at….
Few manage it – for at least three reasons....
One, horse races are outside our control....
Two, luck is a factor we can never accurately legislate for or price in...
Three, we work with incomplete information....
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At root, race-betting is a game of opinions – you against the market....
Forget the bookmaker. He’s just a middleman who facilitates betting for a commission (his over-round profit)....
If the bookmaker does his job properly he’s got no interest in what wins….
…. a balanced book wins a percentage – whatever the race outcome....
The bookie is not your adversary in the market….
…. everybody else is….
The bookie’s got no skin in the game….
…. he’s just a market maker….
…. he produces a book, builds a profit into the prices, and takes bets….
But we don’t oppose the bookie when we bet….
…. it’s not his opinion that we’re betting against (or with!)….
…. it’s all the opinions in the market – represented by prices and dictated by weight of money….
We punters bet against one other – that’s the reality….
…. and we do so based-on our respective opinions....
It stands to reason that better-informed opinions will have the edge....
Those who know that little bit more….
…. will have the advantage over those who know that little bit less....
That makes sense. In all walks of life – not just race-betting....
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I work hard to be better informed than others in the market....
I study - religiously….
…. I read the form – as a matter of course….
…. I watch as much racing as I can….
…. I keep my eyes and ears open....
I do a lot of thinking….
I crunch numbers….
I dig in places other’s don’t….
…. and if I dig with the others, I dig deeper....
In short, I strive to play the game with informed opinions….
I put time in to build knowledge that delivers a betting edge….
That’s how I set my stall out….
Maybe it’s an effective approach….
…. maybe other approaches would be more effective….
…. I don’t know….
I can certainly improve (who can’t?)….
…. and I strive to – daily….
…. nobody ever criticised me for lack of effort or application....
But it doesn’t matter how hard any of us works….
…. because in racing we work with incomplete information....
…. and no amount of hard work will overcome that liability....
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In racing there are things we know – for sure....
Kempton is right-handed….
…. horse A has been off the track for 125 days….
…. trainer X hasn’t had a winner in six weeks and 80% finished unplaced....
These are facts….
…. we know these things….
…. we can factor them into our deliberations....
Then there are the things we know we don’t know....
We don’t know if Horse A is fully fit after his time off the track….
His trainer says he’s as fit as he can get him at home….
…. but what does that mean exactly….
We don’t know – not for sure....
Trainer X has been on the cold list too….
…. but three of his most recent runners hit the frame….
Is he back in form?
We can’t know….
…. we can’t be certain....
…. and we must accept that any view taken on such issues is liable to disappoint….
But at least we know what it is we don’t know in these instances….
…. these are absences of knowledge that we’re aware of….
…. and we can work with them on that basis....
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Something that can lead to real trouble is the stuff you think you know but don’t....
This kind of thing often boils down to an assumption that’s been misinterpreted as fact....
Taking the former for the latter can take you down the wrong road….
‘This is a big-field and there’s certain to be pace on....’
‘The far-side is always the place to be at Ascot.....’
‘Horse B is a world-beater and can’t be beaten....’
A 5yo is not mature enough and will never win this race....’
Word likes ‘’certain’, ‘always’, ‘can’t’ and ‘never’ are great words to hear as a contrarian punter....
…. they often lead directly to wrong-headed assumptions you can challenge in the markets….
Punters who rely on statements containing such words….
…. words at extremes….
…. often believe they know something….
…. when – really – they don’t….
Finally, there’s the stuff you don’t know you don’t know….
…. another potentially troublesome category for the punter....
If there’s something you don’t know you don’t know….
…. then you’re unaware of it….
…. and you are unable to factor it into your thinking….
It could be anything. Literally anything....
All I can tell you is that not being aware of it doesn’t mean it isn’t there....
…. and – if it is there – there’s every chance it’ll upend you….
…. and reduce your ‘informed’ opinion to rubble....
Who said this game was easy?
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Like I say, when we bet the races, we work with incomplete information….
…. all the time….
…. all manner of it too....
It’s not an excuse – proffered in advance….
…. it’s just a statement of fact….
…. and it makes the game a real challenge....
I’m not complaining, you understand….
…. I relish the challenge….
…. and missing pieces will never stop me trying to put the jigsaw together….
But when I don’t quite get the full picture….
….. or when I interpret what I see incorrectly….
…. I’m not going to beat myself up….
I work in an imperfect world….
…. trying to predict future events….
…. with only incomplete information to work with….
Getting it wrong is always par for the course....
But I don’t always get it wrong….
I get plenty right too – at prices.
…. and – over time – we do nicely....
It’s just a game….
…. the greatest game ever invented for sure – but just a game nevertheless....
Strive to improve….
…. strive to be a better player….
…. put the hard yards in….
…. do the spadework….
…. play to win…..
…. but always enjoy it – win, lose or draw….
That really is the main thing….
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That’s all for now. Back tomorrow….
Meantime contact me at: nick.pullen@spapublishinggroup.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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