The data that will feed you own Gold Cup view....

Last Updated: 11.01.2017

Wednesday, 11th January 2017

The data that will feed your own Gold Cup view….

It is a strange business in which you expect to be wrong more times than you get it right. But that is the nature of the racing pundit’s business….

I don’t get out too much. I don’t go to dinner parties. I’m not one of life’s great socialisers. I’m not what they call ‘gregarious’. I’m not good in groups. I tend to keep myself to myself. I am essentially a solitary animal….

But occasionally I do meet new people. Sometimes it is unavoidable. And when you meet new people, they always seem to ask what you do for a living.

I get tired of trying to explain it. I get tired of the blank, glassy-eyed expressions. There are only so many polite and courteous ways of answering the question everybody gets to eventually: ‘Yeah… but, dude…. is that like a real job?’

These days, when people ask me what I do for a living, instead of telling them that I write about and bet the racing, I’ve taken to telling them that I’m in the business of predicting the future.

After all, when all is said and done, that is, basically, the business I am in….

  • Right up there with the proper bad boys….

I expect to get things wrong more often than I get them right – no matter how much time I put into my game. And I put a LOT of time into my game….

The Racing Post don’t publish the details of the people who have spent most time logged into and navigating their website over the last 15-years or so. Perhaps they should….

If they did, I tell you this: I would be a very short price about being one of their top users. One of their very top users. I can’t believe there are more than 100 users of that website who spend more time working it than I do.

I’m not sure I would want to be the very TOP user of the Racing Post website. That would be a poisoned accolade. It would make me feel weird. Like I’m spending WAY more time on that website than I should be.

But I know I’m right up there. Right up there with the real die-hard nutters. Right up there with the crazy train-spotter anorak geezers. Right up there with the proper bad boys….

I’m not proud. I’m not bragging. It’s just the way it is. That’s the twisted way I roll through this life, brother.

But the point I’m making is this: no matter how much time I spend on the Racing Post website, I still get more wrong than I get right.

That’s the nature of this game. That’s the nature of horse racing – the greatest betting game ever invented…. bar none…. and we wouldn’t have it any other way….

You always get more wrong than you get right….

  • My thinking is just my thinking….

When you get involved in this game, you will get well and truly smashed up on occasion.

You put your word out there, the word goes bad and you take a vicious upper-cut to the chin. Fair do. It stings a bit, it rocks you & the legs go a bit wobbly – but that’s the game….

What makes up for all the blows and the bloody-noses and the bruises and the brickbats are those times you call it right…. the times you look at the facts, read between the lines, think it through and see things for what they really are….

Sometimes that kind of right-minded thinking leads to backing winners (and we’ve had a fair few of those over the last few weeks) ….

Other times it just leads to right-minded observations. Like Dynaste being an opposable favourite last Saturday afternoon…. Or Coneygree representing an unlikely runner in the Gold Cup….

Sometimes it leads to bets at the right price at the right time. Last week we highlighted Djakadam as the value in the ante-post market for the Gold Cup. He was available at 16s at that point – a top price that has since disappeared (more so this morning with news of Don Cossack’s retirement from racing) ….

But my view – right or wrong – is only one thing the ATC service offers. We also like to bring you the information and hard data – where we can – that helps you come to your own betting decisions….

Djakadam is my idea of the value in the Gold Cup right now. You might disagree. And I confess, my viewpoint is one prone to alteration as things develop over the next few weeks….

If you want to take your own view on the Gold Cup market – and upcoming developments – you will find it useful to be aware of what other Gold Cup winners looked like BEFORE they went to Cheltenham and did the business….

  • The key qualifications of a Gold Cup winner….

These are the strongest stats produced by the last 19 Gold Cup winners….

Measure potential runners against this blueprint and you won’t go far wrong….
You’ll know the pros and cons about every runner – which will enable you to take an informed view at the prices….

  • All the last 19 Gold Cup winners had produced career-best chase RPR at 24f to 27f
  • All 19 had been off track at least 5 weeks (9 of the last 13 had been off the track for 62+ days)
  • 17 appeared at Newbury, Cheltenham, Leopardstown or Kempton last time out
  • 18 had appeared at a previous Festival (13 had made the top 3 in a Festival race)
  • 18 had raced at least 5 times over fences
  • 17 had raced in no more than 13 chases (7 of the last 9 winners has raced in no more than 9)
  • 18 had raced in no more than 18 races in total
  • 18 had won at least 3 races over fences
  • 17 were aged 7- to 9-years-old
  • 17 had run at least twice over fences that season
  • 17 had run no more than 4 times over fences that season
  • 17 had contested a Grade 1 chase that season (13 hitting the front 2)
  • 17 contested a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase last time out
  • 17 had scored an RPR of at least 162 last time out
  • 17 had made the top 2 in a Grade 1 chase over 24f to 27f
  • 17 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 150+
  • 17 had form over the Cheltenham fences (15 having hit the top 3 in a chase at the track)
  • 16 had scored a career-best chasing RPR of 169+
  • 16 had won that season

That’s all from me for today. More tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd