Friday, 17th August 2018
Ripon enjoys its big day in the sunshine tomorrow with the Great St Wilfrid (3.15) headlining the show....
SHANGHAI GLORY ran a cracking race in third 12-months ago and I reckon he’s a good bet at this morning’s 12s to gain compensation for trainer Charles Hills tomorrow....
The winner and the runner-up both raced down the far side last year. Our man was on the near-side and well clear of the rest in his group....
He’s on the far-side tomorrow – drawn in stall 2. Of course, tomorrow is another day and there’s no knowing whether the far side will be the place to be this year....
We must trust to providence on that score. Over the years the winners of this race have come from all over the track....
But one thing Shanghai Glory has in his favour is that he gets to race this year off a 4lb lower mark than he did last time. That can only help....
He’s in decent form too coming into the race. He’s run a couple of good races on turf this term on good and easier ground – throwing in a clunker on the all-weather in-between times....
The ground at the track is currently good. I’d say he doesn’t want it out-and-out quick....
That being the case, I’m hopeful that rain forecast over Ripon this afternoon will fall and aide his cause by keeping the sting out of the surface....
Another plus is his yard’s form over the last fortnight or so. They’ve been winging in winners and that augurs well for this lad. I imagine another shot at this coconut has been the intention for a while and he will have been prepared to put up a good show....
In case you missed it....I know some of you don’t have time to check into ATC every day. So this is your chance to catch up on any coverage you missed this week.... On Monday I offered some thoughts on why race-betting does not amount to investment.... On Tuesday we highlighted a KISS angle for next week’s Ebor meeting at York.... On Wednesday we drew your attention to a rider that might be off-the-radar on the Knavesmire.... Yesterday I offered revealed the rider who currently represents the biggest advantage to a horse in the top handicaps.... |
The 14s about Shanghai Glory does not represent an each-way price for me. So I’m going to go two-against-the-field and have a second horse going for me....
The one I like is the top-weight SPRING LOADED at the general 11s....
He’s up to a mark of 107 after a commanding win over the stiff 5f at Ascot back in July....
On the face of it that mark appeared to be a little beyond him in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood earlier this month under Ryan Moore – where he finished 7th of the 26 beaten 2.25 lengths....
But having watched that race a few times since then, I’m not sure his finishing position told the full story....
For my money he was a little too far back early doors and had a lot to do entering the last quarter mile. It took a while for Ryan Moore to get him organized for his finishing effort and he didn’t really get going until just before he hit the final furlong pole....
But from there he fairly flew home – away from where the main action was focused – passing plenty of horses and closing in on the leading pack....
The line came a little too quickly on the day, but I feel he could have finished much closer than he did....
The race just didn’t pan out for him as connections might have hoped. And I’m mindful that he did his best work late on despite being reported lame behind after the race....
The bottom line is that I reckon he can be competitive off his current mark in what is a lesser race tomorrow. Yes, he must give weight all round but he’s an in-form sprinter and he’s one of those with better form and more recent better form in the book....
The Contrarian Bet Box….To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon…. In the Great St Wilfrid (3.15 @ Ripon).
That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be. |
That’s all from me for today.
Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing....
I’ll be back a little later today with ATC Extra....
And then I’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday with my contrarian advice for Day 1 of the Ebor meeting at York on Wednesday....
Until then. Stay tuned.
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