Spadework - attacking the Cesarewitch....

Last Updated: 09.10.2018

Tuesday, 9th October 2018

Spadework – attacking the Cesarewitch….

There’s plenty to talk about this week – with issues arising out of both Saturday’s Challenge Cup at Ascot and Sunday’s Arc In France....

We bagged the winner at Ascot – which is always desirable – in the shape of Raising Sand. And we did so again at much bigger prices than the on-the-day backers. That’s why we go in early doors rather than late in the day....

Over in France, we weren’t too far away with our contrarian pick either. Capri was only 3-lengths off the high-class winner in 5th. He justified our decision to support him at the prices....

And I know some of you bagged an each-way pay out with firms offering Enhanced Place Terms on the race.... 

But all the fallout and take-outs from the weekend can wait until tomorrow....

Today, I want to get us going ASAP on the spadework for the big race this weekend – the Cesarewitch at Newmarket....

  • Cross-code operators….

You don’t see too many races like Saturday’s Cesarewitch at Newmarket....

The second leg of the ‘autumn double – where a field of 30+ horses slug it out over a stamina-sapping trip of 2 miles and 2 furlongs – sounds more like a race over hurdles or fences than a handicap run on the flat….

That’s perhaps why yards and horses more associated with the jumps game have enjoyed plenty of success in this race in recent times….

Alan King won it with Grumeti in 2015. Philip Hobbs won it with Big Easy the year before – also winning the race in 2006 with Detroit City….

Nicky Henderson, Martin Pipe and Tony Martin are other cross-code winners of the race this century. Willie Mullins has placed with three of his five runners in the race. And there have been plenty more jumps yards and horses placed in the race since 2000….

Clearly jumps horses can’t be dismissed – whoever trains them. And that complicates the picture because their form is sometimes difficult to quantify against that of the flat horses who have been doing their work all summer on the turf....

But what I can tell you is that 5 of the last 12 Cesarewitch winners had won over hurdles and 6 of the winners since the turn of the century had been involved at that year’s Cheltenham Festival….

  • A sustained record of achievement….

Tony Martin has proven to be a particularly good placer of a horse in this race….

We know he likes to land the big prestige handicaps and he has a particularly solid record in this one – his last 11 runners in the race produced a win and 3 placed finishes.

He’s had two additional horses finish 5th at 28s16s – landing pay outs for each-way punters taking advantage of the Enhanced Place Terms bookies always offer on this race.

Martin’s form figures in the race since 2007 read: 12500330050.

That’s a decent return in a race of this nature and he still has two engaged in this season’s renewal....

Golden Spear who was 5th in the race in 2016 off a mark of 86 (the mark he will run off this term) and who gave the impression he is coming back to the boil in the Cesarewitch trial run at Newmarket last month....

And the very progressive Newcross – who has only raced twice this term (producing strong performances in big field handicaps each time)

Neither can be sure of a run. Golden Spear only needs a handful to come out to get a run. But both look like interesting contenders if they can sneak in....

  • Notable field-splitters….

Perhaps the best stat to focus on as an initial field-splitter is this: 15 of the last 16 winners of the race – be they flat horses, jumps horses or dual-code horses – had already won a race of some description over a trip of 2 miles or beyond....

In the Cesarewitch the field is big, the trip is long and it always turns into a genuine test. The stats suggest you need to be with a horse or horses who have proven they have the tank-capacity to get home....

The stats also suggest it is advisable to put a line through horses drawn high….

Being out wide on any turning track is an obvious disadvantage. In the Cesarewitch where as many as 36 runners go to post, getting caught out wide can be a disadvantage that adds up to significant vital yardage over the two and a quarter mile trip....

In the last 16 editions of the race just 4 have managed to win from a stall higher than 19. And the percentage play is probably to split the field at a lower stall still….

Ten of the last 16 winners ran out of stall 15 or lower. Nine were drawn in stalls 1 to 12. Being drawn low to middle on the track is a definite racing advantage....

Form is a key consideration too. Winners of the race generally come into the contest on the back of a decent placing last time out on the turf. Twelve of the last 16 winners had produced a top-4 finish in their last race on the flat....

  • Jocks with the knack….

If I were looking for specific jockeys in this race I’d be looking first at the mount of Silvestre De Sousa. His record in this race is phenomenal – his six rides in it to date delivering three wins and a 5th-place finish....

Next, I’d be looking at the rides of Ryan Moore and Jamie Spencer....

Both have won the race – Spencer won it on Detroit City back in 2006 whilst Moore won it when he was still a fresh-faced 5lb claimer all the way back in 2002 on Miss Fara for Martin Pipe.

Moore has placed a further 4 times from 13 additional rides in the race – he has also finished 5th and 6th. Spencer has placed a further 3 times from 8 additional mounts....

Those might not appear to be stellar figures on the face of it – but in a race that attracts 30+ runners every year, those figures are well ahead of par....

Both riders are masters of timing and both are tactically astute and sufficiently savvy to do the business from any part of the track. They confer a definite advantage to any horse they ride on Saturday....

The other rider I would highlight is Andrea Atzeni. Just 9 rides in the race to date have produced a winner and two placers. It’s a return that suggests he can figure when he’s on the right kind of horse….

  • The last word….

There are still 52 horses holding entries for Saturday’s race. But only 34 can run. The final field will take clearer shape as the week rolls on....

But it is never too early to be well-prepared. If you’re the type of punter who likes to do a bit of his own digging, you can get to work with some of the field-splitting stats highlighted above....

It’s only Tuesday – and you can get ahead of the market. If the stats lead you to one or two horses that are sure to get a run, you might think about taking a price....

That’s all from me for today....

I’ll be back with more tomorrow....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd