Thursday, 10th January 2019
It is a strange business in which you expect to be wrong more times than you get it right. But that is the nature of the racing pundit’s business….
I don’t get out too much. I don’t go to dinner parties. I’m not one of life’s great socialisers. I’m not what they call ‘gregarious’. I’m not good in groups. I tend to keep myself to myself. I am essentially a solitary animal….
But occasionally I do meet new people. Sometimes it is unavoidable. And when you meet new people, they always seem to ask what you do for a living.
I get tired of trying to explain it. I get tired of the blank, glassy-eyed expressions. There are only so many polite and courteous ways of answering the question everybody gets to eventually: ‘Yeah… but, …. is that like a real job?’
These days, when people ask me what I do for a living, instead of telling them that I write about and bet the racing, I’ve taken to telling them that I’m in the business of predicting the future.
After all, when all is said and done, that is, basically, the business I am in….
I expect to get things wrong more often than I get them right – no matter how much time I put into my game. And I put a LOT of time into my game….
The Racing Post don’t publish the details of the people who spend most time logged into and navigating their website over the last 15-years or so. Perhaps they should….
If they did, I tell you this: I would be a very short price about being one of their top users. One of their very top users. I can’t believe there are more than 100 users of that website who spend more time working it than I do.
I’m not sure I would want to be the very TOP user of the Racing Post website. That would be a poisoned accolade. It would make me feel weird. Like I’m spending WAY more time on that website than I should be.
But I know I’m right up there. Right up there with the real die-hard nutters….
I’m not proud. I’m not bragging. It’s just the way it is....
But the point I’m making is this: no matter how much time I spend on the Racing Post website, I still get more wrong than I get right....
That’s the nature of this game as I referred to yesterday. That’s the nature of horse racing – the greatest betting game ever invented…. bar none…. and we wouldn’t have it any other way….
In case you missed it....
The fences play a crucial part in jumps racing....
To the untutored eye one fence is much like another....
But that’s not the case. There are crucial distinctions that it’s useful to be aware of....
ITV’s Mick Fitzgerald and Luke Harvey can tell you more. Click here.
When you get involved in this game, you will get well and truly smashed up on occasion....
You put your word out there, the word goes bad and you take a vicious upper-cut to the chin. Fair do. It stings a bit, it rocks you & the legs go a bit wobbly – but that’s the game….
What makes up for all the blows and the bloody-noses and the bruises and the brickbats are those times you call it right…. the times you look at the facts, read between the lines, think it through and see things for what they really are….
Sometimes that kind of right-minded thinking leads to backing winners. Sometimes it leads to bets at the right price at the right time. Other times it just leads to right-minded observations.
But my view – right or wrong – is only one thing the ATC service offers. We also like to bring you the information and hard data – where we can – that helps you come to your own betting decisions….
Yesterday 43 horses declared for the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival in March and right now is a reasonable-enough time to be looking for a bit of ante-post value – if that’s your way.
If you want to take an early view on the Gold Cup market – and upcoming developments – you’ll find it useful to be aware of what other Gold Cup winners looked like BEFORE they went to Cheltenham and did the business….
These are the strongest stats produced by the last 21 Gold Cup winners….
Measure potential runners against this blueprint and you won’t go far wrong….
You’ll know the pros and cons about every runner – which will enable you to take an informed view at the current prices….
Leave it until race day for a big-price in the Gold Cup and you’re likely to end up disappointed according to the stats….
16 of the last 18 winners of the Gold Cup emerged from the front 3 in the market – and only the 2014 winner Lord Windermere and 2017 winner Sizing John were returned bigger than 8s….
That’s all from me for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my contrarian take on the weekend action....
P.S. One last thing. The big race for us this weekend is the Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick. On Tuesday, we took a loo at the key pointers revealed by the historic record. If you missed that, you can catch-up here….