The contrarian perspective this weekend....

Last Updated: 12.04.2019

Friday, 12th April 2019

The contrarian perspective this weekend….

Bookies never miss an opportunity to try and hoodwink the market....

After getting a spanking at the hands of Tiger Roll at Aintree, they’re now trying to convince punters that Nicky Henderson’s Beware The Bear is a similar ‘good thing’ prospect up at Ayr tomorrow in the Scottish Grand National (3.35)....

This steering-job yesterday from David Stevens, head of PR for race sponsors Coral....

‘He has been pulled up in a Welsh National and this race last year,  but looked good when winning at the Cheltenham Festival, so seven days after the Tiger roared it could be the turn of the Bear....’

Of course, it could happen. Anything can happen in handicap racing....

But on a mark of 161, carrying top weight of 11-12, 9s is short-enough for me about the 9yo ending Nicky Henderson’s long record of never having saddled a National winner of any variety....

And the horse must overcome a hoodoo of his own. It is 30 years since a winner at the Cheltenham Festival turned out at Ayr to win tomorrow’s race....

It could happen. Never say never. But, at the price – which is what it’s all about for me – I must oppose the Henderson horse....

  • An each-way pick....

I can’t resist having an each-way dabble on Richard Hobson’s CHIC NAME at the general 20s....

He’s 2lbs out of the handicap but I’m not concerned about that. In previous years plenty of horses have gone well in this event whilst being wrong at the weights....

And one thing about this horse is that he comes right at this time of year as evidenced by his win in the Highland National Handicap Chase at Perth last April....

In keeping with that habit, his season was slow to get going. But he caught light at Newbury last time – minus the hood for the first time in a long time – when beating last year’s Scottish Grand National winner, Joe Farrell who saw plenty of money for the Grand National in the days leading up to the race....

For sure, he was in receipt of plenty of weight that day. But it was still a good performance. And he’s a horse landing at Ayr tomorrow in tip-top shape....

He’s never gone 4-miles but nor have plenty of others in tomorrow’s field. And he does shape like a proper test will suit....

The hood is left off again tomorrow but he will wear a first-time tongue tie that could eek out more improvement....

I think he’s one to take more seriously tomorrow than the price suggests. And for me, at the price, he’s an each-way play....

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Scottish Grand National (3.35 @ Ayr)

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – CHIC NAME each-way (20s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now.

I’ll be back a little later today with ATC Extra....

Win, lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow....

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd