Pinpoint serious Guineas contenders....

Last Updated: 15.04.2019

Monday, 15th April 2019

Pinpoint serious Guineas contenders….

Newmarket is hosting its Craven meeting this week, giving punters an early opportunity to run their eye over some of the potential contenders in the first Classic events of the season – the 2000 Guineas and the 1000 – which will also be run at the track....

Those races won’t be run until Saturday 4th May and Sunday 5th May respectively....

But with the G3 Nell Gwyn Stakes (a potential guide to the 1000 Guineas) taking place tomorrow....

And with the G3 Craven Stakes (a guide to the 2000 Guineas) being run at the track on Wednesday....

Now seems as good a time as any to outline what you want to be looking for in serious candidates for the Classic events....

I’ve studied the stats and data related to the last 19 editions of both the 2000 Guineas and the 1000 Guineas....

Here’s what I found....

  • Stats that inform the 2000 Guineas....

Yard followers will be looking in one direction only on – towards Ballydoyle….

The last 45 runners saddled by Aidan O’Brien have produced 8 winners and an additional 3 placers. He’s the most successful handler in the race’s history. Jim Bolger is 1-2-7. The Hannon outfit 1-8-34….

Galileo’s 11 runners have produced 3 winners and 3 additional placed finishes. Progeny of Dubawi have the makings of what could become an interesting record – 4 runners to date produced 2 winners and 2 places….

Thirteen of the last 19 race favourites got turned over – but 11 of the race winners over that same period did emerge from the top 3 in the market….

Just four winners were sent off at odds bigger than 11s since 2000 (Night Of Thunder was a massive outlier in 2014 at 40s)….

It is worth noting that Aidan O’Brien has saddled 4 winning favourites and 7 losing favourites….

  • All the last 19 winners had won at least one race
  • All were progeny of a sire that had won a G1 when racing
  • All had appeared at 7f or 8f last time out
  • 18 were progeny of a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 8.8+ (15 were progeny of a sire with a Stamina Index figure of 9.1+)
  • 18 had raced at least twice
  • 18 had a strike-rate of 50%+
  • 18 had scored a career-best of at least 110 on the RPR scale (all hitting that level at 7f or 8f)
  • 18 had scored career-best RPR in one of last 2 races
  • 17 had won at 7f or 8f (all 17 had a strike-rate of 50%+ at those trips)
  • 17 had been foaled before April
  • 15 had scored an RPR of 85+ on racing debut
  • 15 had raced no more than 5 times
  • 15 had never finished outside the first 3
  • 15 had already won a Group race
  • 15 had run in a G1 or a G2
  • 15 had won a race worth at least £30k to winning connections

Beware domestic trials. They are rarely significant these days. No horse since Mystiko (1991) has won the European Free Handicap and the 2000 Guineas double. Haafhd (2004) is the last to do the Craven Stakes and 2000 Guineas double. Frankel is a rare recent winner of the Greenham to win the 2000 Guineas….

Makfi is the only winner since Golan (2001) not to have contested at least one Group race as a juvenile….

  • The inside line on the 1000 Guineas....

As in the 2000 GuineasAidan O’Brien leads the way when it comes to form in the 1000 Guineas – with 4 wins and 8 places from his last 37 runners….

Jim Bolger has a decent record. Just 9 runners since 2000 have yielded a winner and 4 additional placed finishes. John GosdenSaeed Bin Suroor and Sir Michael Stoute merit respect with winners and multiple placed horses over the last 19 years. Two Andre Fabre runners have produced a winner and a place….

Mick Channon’s last 21 runners have failed to win or place….

Galileo progeny have run18 times in this race since 2000 – producing 2 winners and 9 placed horses….

Just 4 winning favorites since 2000 and just 8 winners coming out of the top 3 in the market – stats that provide encouragement for contrarians like me who like to take the front horses on….

Ten winners over the period at 10s or bigger make this a race worth having a crack at if you like a price….

  • All the last 19 winners had scored career-best Racing Post rating in one of last 2 races
  • 18 were progeny of a sire which had won a G1 or a G2 on the racetrack
  • 17 had run over 7f or 8f
  • 16 had scored a best RPR of at least 103 (10 of the last 13 winners had recorded a rating of 108+)
  • 16 had run between 2 and 7 times
  • 16 had won at least one of their last 2 races
  • 16 ran over 7f or 8f last time out
  • 16 had posted a win at 7f or 8f (12 had strike-rates of 50%+ at those trips)
  • 15 had a strike rate of at least 40%
  • 15 had won a race worth £20k+ to winning connections
  • 15 of the 17 that had run at least 3 times had won at least twice
  • 15 ran at Group level last time out
  • 15 appeared at Newmarket, Leopardstown or Maisons-Lafitte last time out
  • 14 had finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 14 had scored an RPR of 77+ on racing debut
  • The last word….

The 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas are still a little way off but the trials are underway and the stats above will help you take an informed view on the horses coming out of those races....

That’s all from me for today.

I’ll be back tomorrow as per usual with my contrarian take on the weekend action....

Until then. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd