The contrarian perspective on Day 2 at York....

Last Updated: 15.05.2019

Wednesday, 15th May 2019

The contrarian perspective on Day 2 at York….

I see Kevin Ryan’s TOMMY TAYLOR running a big race at 12s in the opener on tomorrow’s card at York (1.50) – the Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap....

Kevin Ryan’s given the horse a green-light for a first-time shot at the minimum 5f trip....

And I reckon the step back could be the key to the horse breaking an 11-race losing sequence....

  • Plenty to like....

There were some encouraging signs last-time-out at Doncaster in a first-time-visor under Tom Eaves over the 6f trip....

The 5yo showed real pace in the early-stages of the race. He only got headed inside the final furlong but kept on and was beaten 1.75 lengths....

It was a performance that built on his seasonal debut at the same track and put to rest a poor performance at Newmarket in-between-times when he got warm and worked-up beforehand....

If he can show the same kind of pace this time, then he’s entitled to be right there at the death over the shorter trip....

Kevin Ryan’s horse is certainly handicapped to go well. He’s dropped to 91 and he looks to be running into form that can see him rise from that perch....

I like the reduced trip. I like the retention of the visor. I like the fact 3 of the horse’s better performances have come at the track.. I also like the draw in stall 2. Nine of the last eleven winners were drawn ins stall 5 or lower....

  • Two against the field....

There’s a tonne of pace in the low stalls and I want a closer for my second selection....

OPEN WIDE is a fair candidate to take advantage at 16s....

He needs to come late and stall 13 will enable Jim Crowley to get on the back of the low pace....

And the horse has been in decent form this term following a wind-op at the back end of last season – putting up pleasing-enough performances in defeat at Newmarket and Goodwood....

The last of those was a solid effort on a track that might not suit. First time hood in combination with blinkers may have helped and are retained for tomorrow’s run....

He will be fitter for those efforts and could be ready to post a new peak. Things will need to fall right. But there’s pace-on and he will benefit from it....

  • One for the Hambleton....

LOVE DREAMS ran a cracker in last year’s edition of the Hambleton Handicap when finishing 2nd, and tomorrow’s renewal (3.35) offers an opportunity to go one better off a 5lb lower mark....

Last year’s effort came off a mark of 100. Tomorrow, Mark Johnston’s charge goes off 95 on the back of two encouraging performances at Kempton and Goodwood. He’s got to be somewhere close to cherry-ripe on the back of those efforts....

There’s a bigger field to deal with  this time. But the pace was brisk enough last year and the front-end prevailed on that occasion.

The 5yo went to gain compensation next time in another handicap at Goodwood off that mark of 100....

The  horse that beat Love Dreams last year by just 1.5 lengths, Afaak, has run competitive races off marks of 103 and 104 in the meantime and continues to race off the lower of those two marks.....

At 95 – and with two solid seasonal efforts to build on – Love Dreams has an opportunity to produce a big run. The 12s is fair-enough....

The Contrarian Bet Box….

To recap on where my contrarian money will be going tomorrow afternoon….

In the Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap (1.50 @ York).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – TOMMY TAYLOR (12 generally) & OPEN WIDE (16s generally)

In the Hambleton Handicap (3.35 @ York).

  • Nick’s Contrarian Picks – LOVE DREAMS (12s generally)

That is my take on where the value lies – but you will no doubt have your own ideas and that’s exactly as it should be.

  • The last word….

That’s all from me for now.

I’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow with my contrarian take on the action on Day 3 at York....

Win lose or draw – enjoy the racing tomorrow afternoon....

Until next time. Stay tuned.

Nick Pullen

Against the Crowd

PS. If you missed my picks for this afternoon, you can catch up here....